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What happens if Biden drops out of presidential race?

Washington — With major donors reluctant to keep campaign funds flowing and more Democrats publicly saying that his chances of winning the November election are dwindling, U.S. President Joe Biden is reportedly coming closer to bowing out of the race.

As of Friday, there was no indication from the campaign nor the White House that Biden would drop out. But if he does, Democrats must make a swift decision on who would replace him on the top of their ticket, and how.

The most orderly scenario would be for Biden to endorse an alternative candidate and ask the delegates to transfer their pledged votes to him or her when they assemble next month at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, Illinois.

Historically, convention delegates vote for the candidate who won the primary or caucus in their respective states. Almost all 3,896 Democratic delegates are pledged to Biden after he swept nearly every primary and caucus contest in the country. But that “pledge” can be changed under DNC rules that allow for “good conscience” to determine delegate decisions.

Vice President Kamala Harris would be a logical choice to quickly coalesce delegate votes. She is already first in the line of presidential succession, and as part of the Biden-Harris ticket she would make sense financially.

Under campaign finance rules Harris is entitled to spend the Biden-Harris war chest, which stands at $91 million according to their last filing report in June.

Fifty-eight percent of Democrats think Harris would make a good president, according to a new poll from the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, 30% percent of the public think she would. Forty-three percent of adults have a favorable opinion of her, including 74% of Democrats.

However, Democrats may also want to avoid the undemocratic appearance of an automatic coronation of Harris as Biden’s successor and hold some kind of contest.

Open convention

The party could hold an open convention and choose a nominee from among several candidates that could include California Governor Gavin Newsom, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro or Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer.

An open convention could be a tumultuous and divisive process, something Democrats would want to avoid two months before the election. Nominating someone other than Harris could also anger Black women, a core bloc of the party’s support.

The bottom line is, should the president step aside, Democrats must quickly figure out who replaces Biden and who is likely to win the election, said Larry Sabato, director of University of Virginia’s Center for Politics.

“And that ought to be the same person,” he told VOA. “Whether they can do it in the time permitted — it’s a month — is another question entirely.”

Democrats must also decide who will be the running mate, a process that could create excitement and division in the party.

At separate occasions, Biden has said that the direst of polling results could get him to quit, or if there is a “medical condition that emerged,” or if the “Lord Almighty comes out and tells” him to.

The president remains in isolation in his vacation home in Delaware, following his COVID diagnosis earlier this week.
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