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Hispanics Now Outnumber Whites in Texas

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Hispanics are now the largest population group in Texas, surpassing non-Hispanic white residents who have outnumbered other racial groups in the state since at least 1850.

The switch likely happened in late 2021 but was not officially confirmed until the U.S. Census released official population numbers in June 2023. The numbers show that Hispanics have been the state’s largest population group at least since July 2022.

Texas officials were expecting the change.

“A significant proportion of that was being driven by more births than deaths,” says Texas state demographer Lloyd Potter. “The other part of this is that the Hispanic population is younger, meaning their age structure is younger. There are fewer people at the older ages, more people at the younger ages than the other race, ethnic groups.”

And the younger a group is, the more babies they’re likely to have. In addition, Hispanics make up a significant portion of people moving to the Lone Star State. One in five domestic migrants to Texas is of Hispanic descent, while almost half of international migrants are of Hispanic origin.

The most recent numbers show that the Hispanic population in Texas makes up 40.2% of the population, while non-Hispanic whites account for 39.8%, according to Potter, who doesn’t expect to see a seismic societal shift as a result.

“The Hispanic population has been in Texas before it was Texas … it’s certainly part of our culture,” he says. “It’s not anything that’s new to Texas. I think there probably is the question about what impact it may have on politics.”

Historically, Hispanics have reliably voted for Democrats. But that’s no longer true, according to Sharon Navarro, a professor of political science at the University of Texas at San Antonio.

“What we’re now seeing is that Latinos are voting based on issues, issues that they find more important to them … that are the same as the larger population,” she says. “In other words, it’s still jobs. It’s still the economy. It’s still education. Still health care. …Latinos are willing to cross the line in terms of issues.”

For example, Navarro says, the oil and gas industries, which are among the state’s biggest employers, are important to the Hispanic population. Whichever party or candidate makes that a top issue could make serious inroads with Hispanic voters.

What could impact the state in the long term is not having a sufficiently educated workforce to fill future jobs. Recent figures show that 95% of white adults in Texas at least have a high school diploma. But only 70% of Hispanic adults graduated from high school.

“We’re adding higher-skilled, higher-paid jobs faster than we are the lower-skilled, lower-paid jobs,” Potter says. “So, to fill those jobs, we need to ensure the growing segments of our population have the educational attainment to fill those jobs. And that largely needs to be focused on the Spanish population.”

Navarro says any economic and political gains made by Hispanics are good for the state.

“With the demographics changing and the white population slowly aging, there’s going to have to be more investment — economic investment and political investment — in the Latino population,” she says. “Otherwise, there will be a sort-of race to the bottom without this kind of investment in moving forward.”
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Mike Pence Faces Cash Shortage, Questions About Campaign’s Future

With three months to go before the Iowa caucuses that he has staked his campaign on, former Vice President Mike Pence faces mounting debt and lagging poll numbers that are forcing questions about not only whether he will qualify for the next debate, but whether it makes sense for him to remain in the race until then.

Pence ended September with just $1.18 million left in his campaign account, a strikingly low number for a presidential contest and far less than his rivals, new filings show. His campaign also has $621,000 in debt — more than half the cash he had remaining — and is scrambling to meet donor thresholds for the Nov. 8 debate. While he would likely meet the debate’s polling requirements, Pence has struggled to gain traction and is polling in the low single digits nationally, with no sign of momentum.

Former President Donald Trump, meanwhile, is leading every one of his rivals by at least 40 points in national polls and ended September with $37.5 million on hand.

People close to Pence say he now faces a choice about how long to stay in the race and whether remaining a candidate might potentially diminish his long-term standing in the party, given Trump’s dominating lead. While Pence could stick it out until the Jan. 15 Iowa caucuses, visiting the state’s famous Pizza Ranch restaurants and campaigning on a shoestring budget, he must now weigh how that will impact his desire to remain a leading conservative voice, according to the people, some of whom spoke on condition of anonymity to share their unvarnished views.

“For Pence and many of the others, you gotta start looking and saying, ‘I’m not going to go into substantial debt if I don’t see a pathway forward,'” said former Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who ran against Trump in 2016 but abandoned his bid after concluding “the Trump train had left the station.”

Pence, for the moment, is pressing forward. He held a Newsmax town hall in Iowa Tuesday night and fundraisers this week in Cleveland, Philadelphia and Dallas. He was to speak at the Republican National Committee’s fall retreat Friday night and at the Republican Jewish Coalition’s Annual Leadership Summit in Las Vegas next week — all opportunities to pitch deep-pocketed donors to keep his campaign afloat.

The super PAC supporting Pence is also continuing its efforts, fundraising and conducting extensive voter outreach, including knocking on nearly 600,000 doors and counting.

The campaign is also working aggressively to reach the 70,000-donor threshold needed to qualify for next month’s debate and expressed confidence they could get there if they try — even as others remain skeptical he can make it.

“I know it’s an uphill climb for a lot of reasons for us, some that I understand, some that I don’t,” Pence acknowledged as he spoke to reporters in New Hampshire last week after formally registering for the state’s first-in-the-nation primary.

Still, some in Pence’s orbit believe he has important contributions left to make in the primary, particularly after the Hamas attack on Israel pushed foreign policy to the forefront. Pence has argued he is the most qualified candidate to deal with issues abroad, saying in the August debate that “now is not the time for on-the-job training.”

Pence, they say, feels a renewed sense of purpose given his warnings throughout the campaign against the growing tide of isolationism in the Republican Party. Pence has used the conflict to decry “voices of appeasement,” which he argues embolden groups like Hamas.

Another person cautioned that Pence, a devout Evangelical Christian who sees the campaign as a calling, may respond differently than other candidates might in his position if he feels called to stay in the race.

If he decides to exit, Pence would have a potential platform in Advancing American Freedom, the conservative think tank he founded after leaving the vice presidency.

In the meantime, the campaign has been working to cut costs, including having fewer staff members travel to events.

Regardless of what he decides, the predicament facing the former vice president underscores just how dramatically Trump has transformed the GOP.

Pence, in many ways, has been running to lead a party that no longer exists.

He has cast himself as the field’s most traditionally conservative candidate in the mold of Ronald Reagan. But many of his positions — from maintaining U.S. support for Ukraine’s defense against the Russian invasion to proposing cuts to Social Security and Medicare — are out of step with much of his party’s base.

He also faces fallout from Jan. 6, 2021, when a mob of Trump’s supporters — some chanting “Hang Mike Pence!” — stormed the Capitol building, sending him running for his life. Trump tried to falsely convince Pence and his own followers that the vice president somehow had the power to overturn the results.

Pence has repeatedly been confronted on the campaign trail by people who accuse him of betraying Trump, who still promotes falsehoods about the 2020 election, often several times a day.

But Pence has also faced the same challenge as every candidate in the field not named Trump, a singular figure whose grip on the party has only intensified as he has been charged with dozens of crimes.

“If something big doesn’t happen on Nov. 8, the primary is over. Some would argue it is now,” said Walker, who entered the 2016 Republican primary as a front-runner only to end his campaign in September 2015, months before a single vote was cast, amid mounting debt.

An August AP-NORC poll found Republicans split on Pence: 41% held a favorable view of the candidate and 42% an unfavorable one. Nationally, a majority of U.S. adults — 57% — view him negatively, with only 28% having a positive view.

Some are hoping Pence doesn’t give up. In Iowa, Kelley Koch, chair of the Dallas County Republican Party, said she felt Pence had struggled to define himself beyond Trump and said many remained skeptical of his actions on Jan. 6.

But she said following the attack on Israel, with all eyes now on the Middle East and a new war, that Pence could have a moment to break through.

“He is such a pro on foreign policy. That’s one of his strengths. And he has that over a lot of the new rookie candidates who are in the race. He should run on that,” she said. “I would think that that would be just a major trumpet setting the stage for Mike Pence to step up and take the mic.”
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US Sounds Alarm on Russian Election Efforts

Russia’s efforts to discredit and undermine democratic elections appears to be expanding rapidly, according to newly declassified intelligence, spurred on by what the Kremlin sees as its success in disrupting the past two U.S. presidential elections.

The U.S. intelligence findings, shared in a diplomatic cable sent to more than 100 countries and obtained by VOA, are based on a review of Russian information operations between January 2020 and December 2022 that found Moscow “engaged in a concerted effort … to undermine public confidence in at least 11 elections across nine democracies.”

The review also found what the cable describes as “a less pronounced level of Russian messaging and social media activity” that targeted another 17 democracies.

“These figures represent a snapshot of Russian activities,” the cable warned. “Russia likely has sought to undermine confidence in democratic elections in additional cases that have gone undetected.

“Our information indicates that senior Russian government officials, including in the Kremlin, see value in this type of influence operation and perceive it to be effective,” the cable added.

VOA reached out to the Russian Embassy for comment on the cable warnings but so far has not received a response.

Russia has routinely denied allegations it interferes in foreign elections. However, last November, Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin appeared to admit culpability for interfering in U.S. elections in a social media post.

“Gentlemen, we interfered, we interfere and we will interfere,” Prigozhin said.

U.S. officials assess that, in addition to Russia’s efforts to sow doubt surrounding the 2016 and 2020 elections in the United States, Russian campaigns have targeted countries in Asia, Europe, the Middle East and South America.

The goal, they say, is specifically to erode public confidence in election results and to paint the newly elected governments as illegitimate — using internet trolls, social media influencers, proxy websites linked to Russian intelligence and even Russian state-run media channels like RT and Sputnik.

And even though Russia’s resources have been strained due to its invasion of Ukraine, Moscow election interference efforts do not seem to be slowing down.

It is “a fairly low cost, low barrier to entry operation,” said a senior U.S. intelligence official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity in order to discuss the intelligence assessment.

“In many cases they’re amplifying existing domestic narratives that kind of question the integrity of elections,” the official said. “This is a very efficient use of resources. All they’re doing is magnifying claims that it’s unfair or it didn’t work or it’s chaotic.”

U.S. officials said they have started giving more detailed, confidential briefings to select countries that are being targeted by Russia. Some of the countries, they said, have likewise promised to share intelligence gathered from their own investigations.

Additionally, the cable makes a series of recommendations to counter the threat from the Russian disinformation campaigns, including for countries to expose, sanction and even expel any Russian officials involved in spreading misinformation or disinformation.

The cable also encourages democratic countries to engage in information campaigns to share factual information about their elections and to turn to independent election observers to assess and affirm the integrity of any elections.
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Lawyer Chesebro Pleads Guilty in Trump’s 2020 Georgia Election Case

Lawyer Kenneth Chesebro pleaded guilty to a felony Friday just as jury selection was getting underway in his trial on charges accusing him of participating in efforts to overturn Donald Trump’s loss in the 2020 election in Georgia.

Chesebro, who was charged alongside Trump and 17 others with violating the state’s anti-racketeering law, pleaded guilty to one felony charge of conspiracy to commit filing false documents in a last-minute deal. His plea came a day after fellow attorney Sidney Powell, who had been scheduled to go to trial alongside him, entered her own guilty plea to six misdemeanor counts.

In Chesebro’s case, he was sentenced to five years’ probation and 100 hours of community service and was ordered to pay $5,000 in restitution, write an apology letter to Georgia’s residents and testify truthfully at any related future trial.

The two guilty pleas — along with a third for a bail bondsman last month — are major victories for Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis, who obtained the indictment in August. They allow her to avoid a lengthy trial for two defendants — which would have given those remaining a peek at her trial strategy — and to whittle down an unwieldy pool of defendants.

Chesebro, who lives in Puerto Rico, was initially charged with felony racketeering and six other counts as part of a wide-ranging scheme to keep the Republican president in power after he lost the 2020 election to Democrat Joe Biden. The indictment alleges Chesebro coordinated and executed a plan to have 16 Georgia Republicans sign a certificate declaring falsely that Trump won the state and declaring themselves the state’s “duly elected and qualified” electors.

For prosecutors, the plea deal assures that Chesebro publicly accepts responsibility for his conduct in the case and removes the uncertainty of a trial by a jury of his peers. It also compels him to testify about communications he had with Trump’s campaign lawyers and close associates, including co-defendant Rudy Giuliani, the former New York mayor and a Trump attorney.

Jury selection had been set to start Friday for the trial of Powell and Chesebro after each filed a demand for a speedy trial. Once Powell pleaded guilty, Chesebro had been set to continue to trial on his own.

As part of Powell’s deal, she will serve six years of probation, will be fined $6,000 and will have to write an apology letter to Georgia and its residents. She also recorded a statement for prosecutors and agreed to testify truthfully against her co-defendants at future trials.

A lower-profile defendant in the case, bail bondsman Scott Graham Hall, pleaded guilty last month to five misdemeanor charges. He was sentenced to five years of probation and agreed to testify in further proceedings.

All the other defendants, including Trump White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, have pleaded not guilty.

Prosecutors allege that Chesebro unlawfully conspired with Trump and lawyers associated with his campaign to have a group of Georgia Republicans sign the false elector certificate and to submit it to various federal authorities. He also communicated with Trump campaign lawyers and Republican leaders in other swing states won by Biden to get those states to submit false slates of electors as well, prosecutors alleged.

That included writing memos advocating for Republicans in those states to meet and cast electoral votes for Trump and providing detailed instructions for how the process should be carried out. In an email to Giuliani, he outlined strategies to disrupt and delay the joint session of Congress on Jan. 6, 2021, during which electoral votes were to be certified. He wrote that those strategies were “preferable to allowing the Electoral Count Act to operate by its terms.”
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Jordan Still Running for Speaker; Plan for Temporary One Falls Flat

Refusing to give up, Representative Jim Jordan told Republican colleagues on Thursday that he was still running to be speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives — leaving Republicans few viable options after his backers resisted a plan to expand the temporary speaker’s powers to reopen the House.

The combative Ohio congressman delivered the message at a fiery closed-door meeting at the Capitol as the Republican majority considered an extraordinary plan to give the speaker pro tempore more powers for the next several months to bring the House back into session and conduct crucial business, according to Republicans familiar with the private meeting who insisted on anonymity to discuss it.

But neither option seemed immediately workable. Republican moderates who have twice rejected Jordan are unwilling to support him now, especially after some have reported harassing pressures and even death threats from his supporters. At the same time, Jordan’s hard-right allies are refusing to allow a temporary speaker to gain more power.

The prolonged stalemate risks keeping the House intractably shut down for the foreseeable future after the unprecedented ouster of Representative Kevin McCarthy of California as speaker.

“I’m still running for speaker, and I plan to go to the floor and get the votes and win this race,” said Jordan, chairman of the Judiciary Committee and founder of the House Freedom Caucus.

Factions blame one another

Thursday’s meeting grew heated at times with Republican factions blaming one another for sending their majority into chaos, lawmakers said.

When Representative Matt Gaetz of Florida — the chief architect of the ouster of the speaker two weeks ago — rose to speak, McCarthy told him it was not his turn.

“We’re shaking up Washington, D.C. We’re breaking the fever. And, you know what, it’s messy,” Gaetz said later.

The House convened briefly at midday Thursday, but no action was taken. The schedule ahead is uncertain.

‘It’s not a normal majority’

There is a sinking realization that the House could remain endlessly stuck, out of service, and without a leader for the foreseeable future as the Republican majority spirals deeper into dysfunction.

“We’re trying to figure out if there’s a way we can get back with a Republican-only solution,” said veteran legislator Tom Cole, a representative from Oklahoma. “That’s what normal majorities do. What this majority has done is prove it’s not a normal majority.”

Elevating Speaker Pro Tempore Patrick McHenry to an expanded speaker’s role would not be as politically simple as it might seem. The hard-right Republican lawmakers — including some who ousted McCarthy — don’t like the idea.

While Democrats have suggested the arrangement, Republicans are loath to partner with the Democrats in a bipartisan way. And it’s highly unlikely Republicans could agree to give McHenry more power on their own, even though they have majority control of the House.

“It’s a bad precedent and I don’t support it,” said Representative Scott Perry of Pennsylvania, the chairman of the Freedom Caucus.

McHenry himself has brushed off attempts to take the job more permanently after he was appointed to the role after the ouster of McCarthy.

“I did not ask for additional powers,” said McHenry, a Republican who is well-liked by colleagues and viewed as a highly competent legislator. “My duty is to get the next speaker elected. That’s my focus.”

But McCarthy himself said he tapped McHenry for the role — created in the aftermath of the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks to ensure continuity of government — because he “wanted somebody that could work with all sides. And McHenry is ideal for all that.”

The next steps are highly uncertain as angry, frustrated Republicans predict the House could stay essentially shuttered, as it has been almost all month, until the mid-November deadline for Congress to approve funding or risk a federal government shutdown.

“I think clearly November 17 is a real date,” said Oklahoma Representative Kevin Hern, who leads a large conservative caucus, about the next deadline.

Earlier Wednesday, Jordan, failed in a crucial second ballot, opposed by 22 Republicans, two more than he lost in first-round voting the day before.

Many view the Ohio congressman as too extreme for a central seat of U.S. power and resented the harassing hardball tactics from Jordan’s allies for their votes. Several lawmakers said they had received death threats.

“One thing I cannot stomach or support is a bully,” said a statement from Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks, who voted against Jordan on the second ballot and said she received “credible death threats and a barrage of threatening calls.”

To win over his Republican colleagues, Jordan had relied on backing from Trump, the party’s front-runner in the 2024 election to challenge President Joe Biden, and groups pressuring rank-and-file lawmakers for the vote. But they were not enough and in fact backfired on some.

Flexing their independence, the holdouts are a mix of pragmatists — ranging from seasoned legislators and committee chairs worried about governing, to newer lawmakers from districts where voters prefer Biden to Trump. Jordan’s refusal to concede only further emboldened some of the Republicans.

“The way out is that Jim Jordan has got to pull his name,” said Nebraska Representative Don Bacon, who voted twice against Jordan. “He’s going to have to call it quits.”

Representative John Rutherford of Florida said “it’s not going to happen.”

With Republicans in majority control of the House, 221-212, it appears no Republican candidate can win a clear majority, 217 votes, if there are no absences.
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Biden to Discuss Israel, Ukraine in Thursday Address

U.S. President Joe Biden is set to address the nation Thursday night and discuss the U.S. response to the recent Hamas attack on Israel as well as Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Biden visited Israel Wednesday, bringing a message of support to Israelis while also working to secure humanitarian aid for Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.

The U.S. announced $100 million in aid for Gaza and the West Bank, and the Biden administration is expected to propose $100 billion in supplemental assistance for Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan and security along the U.S.-Mexico border.

“My administration was in close touch with the leadership from the first moments of this attack,” Biden said Wednesday in Tel Aviv.  “We’re going to make sure we have what you have, what you need to protect your people, to defend your nation. For decades, we’ve ensured Israel’s qualitative military edge. And later this week, I’m going to ask the United States Congress for an unprecedented support package for Israel’s defense.”

Some information for this report came from The Associated Press and Reuters.
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