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Trump, Harris discuss China through the lens of domestic concerns

Washington — With domestic hot-button issues dominating the final week of the U.S. presidential campaign, any mention of the U.S.-China competition by candidates Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump has been through the lens of domestic concerns, analysts say.

“American voters are more concerned about domestic issues. Polls show that the so-called China threat ranks behind the economy, immigration, abortion, climate, democracy and other issues for voters,” said Liu Yawei, director of the Carter Center’s China Program.

According to a survey released by YouGov, a U.S. polling organization, only a minority of voters listed U.S. foreign policy as one of the top three issues for them. The survey found Trump’s supporters cared slightly more about foreign policy than Harris’ supporters.

China and domestic policies

Any mention of China has largely been in the context of domestic issues.

In an October 27 rally in New York City, Trump mentioned China twice, saying that if the United States and China were to go to war, the U.S. would “beat them,” and that he would “pass the Trump Reciprocal Trade Act, meaning if China or any other country charges us a 100 or 200% tax or tariff, we [the United States] will then charge them a 100 or 200% tax or tariff.”

Harris made no mention of China during a rally on the same day in the key swing state of Pennsylvania.

Trump has focused on the potential economic effects of competition with China as it relates to American jobs, highlighting trade concerns, flooding of goods, and unfair business practices.

“China has been killing us in trade for years. If I get elected, that’s going to stop,” said Trump at a rally in Cedar Rapids Iowa, in July.

At the Republican National Convention in July, Trump condemned China over several matters including an accusation that Beijing has taken away jobs in the American auto manufacturing industry and that China has posed threats Taiwan.

At a rally in April, Trump said many migrants coming to the U.S. from China are men of “military” or “fighting” age who may be coming here to form a sort of “army.”

Trump has also mentioned China in the context of the fentanyl crisis in the U.S.

“They’re flooding our country with illegal drugs like fentanyl, killing Americans. This has to end, and it’s going to end when we bring tough measures back against China,” he said at a town hall event in New Hampshire in May.

Although Harris has had less to say about China on the campaign trail, she mentioned China at the Democratic National Convention in August, saying she would work to ensure the United States wins the competition on being the global leader in artificial intelligence and space.

She “advocates ‘de-risking’ — reducing interdependence between the United States and China in arenas of advanced technology, principally to ensure that Washington is not assisting Beijing’s military modernization — but she has warned against a tariff-centric economic policy toward China,” said Ali Wyne, a senior researcher at the International Crisis Group, as he described her policies on China.

But the two candidates and their respective political parties have more in common than differences in their rhetoric on China, said Dennis Wilder, the CIA’s former deputy assistant director for East Asia and the Pacific and National Security Council’s (NSC) director for China under President George W. Bush.

“China has not been debated in this election because the American public and political class almost universally share the same negative views of China. Polling shows favorable views of China in the U.S. in single digits.”

While Washington’s policies toward Beijing can impact domestic issues such as jobs and cost of products, conflicts in other parts of the world have also overshadowed U.S. policy toward China in the eyes of many American voters, analysts said.

“Strategic competition between the United States and China is not top of mind for American voters. They are more concerned about the state of the economy and the cost of health care, said Wyne.

“And to the extent that foreign policy issues are shaping their considerations, they are understandably focused on a raging war between Russia and Ukraine and the potential for a regional war in the Middle East.” 
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European allies face challenging times, whoever wins US presidential election

BERLIN — The United States’ European allies are bracing for an America that’s less interested in them no matter who wins the presidential election — and for old traumas and new problems if Donald Trump returns to the White House.

The election comes more than 2 1/2 years into Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, in which Washington has made the single biggest contribution to Kyiv’s defense. There are question marks over whether that would continue under Trump, and how committed he would be to NATO allies in general.

A win by Vice President Kamala Harris could be expected to bring a continuation of current policy, though with Republican opposition and growing war fatigue among the U.S. public there are concerns in Europe that support would wane.

Trump’s appetite for imposing tariffs on U.S. partners also is causing worry in a Europe already struggling with sluggish economic growth. But it’s not just the possibility of a second Trump presidency that has the continent anxious about tougher times ahead.

European officials believe U.S. priorities lie elsewhere, no matter who wins. The Middle East is top of President Joe Biden’s list right now, but the long-term priority is China.

“The centrality of Europe to U.S. foreign policy is different than it was in Biden’s formative years,” said Rachel Tausendfreund, a senior research fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin. “And in that way, it is true that Biden is the last trans-Atlantic president.”

The U.S. will continue to pivot toward Asia, she said. “That means Europe has to step up. Europe has to become a more capable partner and also become more capable of managing its own security area.”

Germany’s defense minister, Boris Pistorius, remarked when he signed a new defense pact with NATO ally Britain that the U.S. will focus more on the Indo-Pacific region, “so it is only a question of, will they do much less in Europe because of that or only a little bit less.”

Ian Lesser, a distinguished fellow at the German Marshall Fund in Brussels, said that “above all, Europe is looking for predictability from Washington,” and that’s in short supply in a turbulent world in which any administration will face other demands on its attention. “But the potential for disruption is clearly greater in the case of a potential Trump administration.”

“There is an assumption of essential continuity” under Harris that’s probably well-founded, he said, with many people who have shaped policy under Biden likely to remain. “It’s very much the known world, even if the strategic environment produces uncertainties of its own.”

While both the U.S. and Europe have been increasingly focused on competition with Asia, the ongoing war in Europe means “the potential costs of a shift away from European security on the American side are very much higher today than they might have been a few years ago,” Lesser said. Europe’s ability to deal with that depends on how quickly it happens, he said.

Europe’s lagging defense spending irked U.S. administrations of both parties for years, though NATO members including Germany raised their game after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. NATO forecasts that 23 of the 32 allies will meet its target of spending 2% or more of gross domestic product on defense this year, compared to only three a decade ago.

During his 2017-21 term, Trump threatened to abandon ” delinquent ” countries if they weren’t paying their “bills.” In campaigning this time, he suggested that Russia could do what it wants with them.

His bluster has undermined trust and worried countries nearest to an increasingly unpredictable Russia, like Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland.

Europeans see the war in Ukraine as an existential challenge in a way the United States eventually may not, even with some signs of war fatigue emerging in Europe itself.

If Trump wins, “there’s every indication that he has no interest in continuing to support Ukraine in this war” and will push quickly for some kind of cease-fire or peace agreement deal that Kyiv may not like and Europe may not be ready for, Tausendfreund said. “And there is also just no way that Europe can fill the military gap left if the U.S. were to withdraw support.”

“Even with a Harris administration there is a growing, changing debate — frankly, on both sides of the Atlantic — about what comes next in the war in Ukraine, what is the end game,” Lesser said.

Biden emphasized the need to stay the course in Ukraine during a brief recent visit to Berlin when he conferred with German, French and British leaders.

“We cannot let up. We must sustain our support,” Biden said. “In my view, we must keep going until Ukraine wins a just and durable peace.”

The times he has lived through have taught him that “we should never underestimate the power of democracy, never underestimate the value of alliances,” the 81-year-old Biden added.

German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who bestowed Germany’s highest honor on Biden for his service to trans-Atlantic relations, hopes Biden’s compatriots are listening.

“In the months to come, I hope that Europeans remember: America is indispensable for us,” he said. “And I also hope that Americans remember: Your allies are indispensable for you. We are more than just ‘other countries’ in the world —we are partners, we are friends.”

Whoever wins the White House, the coming years could be bumpy.

“Whatever the outcome next week, half of the country will go away angry,” Lesser said, noting there’s “every prospect” of divided government in Washington. “Europe is going to face a very chaotic and sometimes dysfunctional America.” 
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Naturalized citizens to play a bigger role in 2024 election

Naturalized immigrants will make up 1/10th of all Americans eligible to vote in 2024. What impact might they have on the election?
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Americans are anxious and frustrated about the presidential campaign, an AP-NORC poll finds

WASHINGTON — Most Americans are feeling a lot of emotions heading into Election Day, but excitement is not one of them.

A new poll from The AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research finds that about 7 in 10 Americans report feeling anxious or frustrated about the 2024 presidential campaign, and a similar share say they’re interested.

Only about one-third say they feel excited.

There’s a broad feeling of uncertainty hanging over the 2024 presidential contest during the last week of the campaign. The race is competitive nationally and in key swing states, according to recent polls, with neither Democrat Kamala Harris nor Republican Donald Trump showing a measurable advantage.

At the same time, the candidates have offered closing arguments that are in stark contrast with each other, with Harris arguing that Trump is obsessed with revenge and his own personal needs, while Trump referred to Harris at a rally on Sunday night as “a trainwreck who has destroyed everything in her path.”

Some groups are even more anxious than they were four years ago, even though that election took place in the midst of a deadly pandemic.

In 2020, an AP-NORC poll found that about two-thirds of Americans were anxious about the election, which is not statistically significant from the new result. But for partisans, anxiety is dialed a little higher.

About 8 in 10 Democrats say anxious describes how they are feeling now, up slightly from around three-quarters in the last election. About two-thirds of Republicans are anxious, a moderate uptick from around 6 in 10 in 2020.

Independents, by contrast, haven’t shifted meaningfully, and they’re also feeling less worried than Democrats or Republicans. About half say they are anxious, similar to the finding in 2020.

Other emotions have gotten more intense compared to past election cycles, including excitement. About one-third of Americans report feeling excited about the 2024 campaign, up from around one-quarter in 2016. But a majority of Americans say they are not excited about this year’s race.

One thing has stayed fairly constant, though: Americans’ level of frustration with the campaign. Roughly 7 in 10 Americans say frustrated describes their emotional state, similar to 2020.

For those Americans, though, there is light on the horizon — soon, the election will be over.

The poll of 1,233 adults was conducted Oct. 24-29, 2024, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
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How autoworkers, Arab Americans and Black voters could swing 2024 race

Michigan is considered one of seven key swing states that will likely decide the outcome of the 2024 presidential race. Although President Joe Biden won Michigan for Democrats in 2020, several factors have made a repeat Democratic victory there anything but certain.
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Economic sentiment improves ahead of US elections 

With the November presidential election less than a week away, some evidence has emerged that U.S. consumers, who have harbored negative sentiments about the state of the economy since the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, are beginning to appreciate its surprisingly robust performance over the past year or more.

On Tuesday, the widely watched U.S. Consumer Confidence Index, an indicator that is correlated with economic growth, rose from 99.2 in September to 108.7 in October, the largest upward jump in more than three years. The Conference Board, which releases the index, also said its index tracking expectations about future economic conditions increased by 6.3 points, to 89.1.

The data suggest that months of good economic news may be starting to break through to U.S. consumers, who are still reeling from the abnormally high inflation that sent prices of goods of all sorts soaring in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2022 and early 2023.

That could also be good news for Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee. She and President Joe Biden have, so far, struggled to convince Americans that the economy really has recovered.

At the same time, former President Donald Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, rarely misses an opportunity to remind voters of the inflation that marked the first half of the Biden administration and the damage it did to household budgets.

Other economic indicators

On Wednesday, the Commerce Department reported that the U.S. gross domestic product grew at an annualized rate of 2.8% in the third quarter of this year. The figure was below expectations but still indicated an economy that was larger than pre-pandemic trends suggested it would be, and that it was also growing at a faster rate.

Inflation, which has played a major role in driving down consumer sentiment, is now sitting at an annualized rate of 2.4%, just four-tenths of a percentage point above the Federal Reserve’s target rate and down from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022.

Meanwhile, the real wages of American workers, defined as the purchasing power of the money they earn, have been steadily growing. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta says growth in average wages has been rising faster than the rate of inflation since early 2023. And according to the Treasury Department, the average household’s purchasing power is now higher than it was before the pandemic, even accounting for inflation.

Slow change in perceptions

“If you look at the economy from an aggregate level — at economic data and other metrics — the economy is in solid shape,” Greg McBride, chief financial analyst for Bankrate.com, told VOA. “We’re seeing growth at a higher-than-expected pace, yet inflation is coming down, and the job market continues to be very robust despite high interest rates.”

However, McBride said, it has taken time for good economic news to color the way consumers think about the economy.

“The reality that households are contending with is the fact that prices are a lot higher than they were a few years ago,” McBride continued. “And whether you’re walking the aisles of the supermarket or paying your monthly rent or insurance premiums, you have near-daily reminders of how much more stuff costs now than it used to.

“And that reality, that struggle, is very real, and that’s what has impacted how consumers feel about the economy — their personal economy.”

Perceptions lag reality

“Perceptions of the economy tend to lag the actual performance of the economy,” said Cullen Hendrix, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

“We’re now in our 16th straight month of wages growing faster than inflation,” Hendrix told VOA. “This has been going on now for a year and a third, which is potentially enough time for consumer sentiment to start to catch up with the actual and incredibly strong performance of the U.S. economy in the post-pandemic period.”

Hendrix said U.S. consumers might be even more bullish about the economy if they stopped to compare the country’s post-COVID-19 economic trajectory with that of other countries.

“If you’ve looked at any of the comparative data, you’ll know that the post-COVID rebound in the United States has been much, much stronger than the post-COVID rebounds in East Asia or in Germany, France, the U.K. or any of the other major economies,” he said.

Declining interest rates

Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at NerdWallet, told VOA that when it comes to consumer sentiment, the passage of time can be a major factor, as can the knowledge that the Federal Reserve has begun lowering interest rates, which were raised sharply to combat inflation.

“The further we get away from the high inflation period, the more likely consumer sentiment is going to come into better alignment with what the economy is actually doing,” she said.

“And now that we have the Fed’s first rate cut in hand, and probably another one coming next week, people know that there is hope on the horizon for lower interest rates, whether they’re interested in getting a mortgage or a car,” she said. “I do think knowing that those lower rates are coming is also going to have a positive impact on sentiment.”

Political reaction

On the campaign trail, Harris has not yet begun to speak as though Americans have adopted a more positive view of the economy. In recent appearances, including an address in Washington on Tuesday night, she has been careful to acknowledge that the wounds of inflation are still healing, and has listed ways she would address economic pain points, such as high grocery and housing costs.

However, in a White House briefing on Wednesday, Jared Bernstein, chair of the U.S. Council of Economic Advisers, said, “I think that upward trend in consumer confidence in sentiment — while not where we want it to be, our work is not done — is telling us that easing inflation, strong growth, a solid job market, and real wage and income gains are helping … American households.”

By contrast, Trump continues to hammer home his own narrative about the state of the U.S. economy.

“If Kamala Harris gets four more years, our economy can never recover,” he said during a rally in New York City on Sunday. “If I win, we will quickly build the greatest economy in the history of the world, which is what we had in our last term. We will rapidly defeat inflation, and we will very simply make America affordable again.”
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Rival campaign merchandise sellers try lowering political temperature

In the U.S. presidential campaign, there is little to agree on between supporters of Kamala Harris and supporters of Donald Trump. From California, Genia Dulot brings us the story of two people selling rival campaign merchandise who are trying to lower the political temperature of their customers.
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Harris, Trump head to political battleground states

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump headed to political battleground states on Wednesday in search of any edge they could find six days before the presidential election that may be the closest in decades.

Harris, the Democratic candidate, and Trump, her Republican challenger, both appeared in the mid-Atlantic state of North Carolina before heading to the Upper Midwest state of Wisconsin, with Harris also campaigning in another key state, Pennsylvania in the East.

The three states are among seven, along with Michigan in the Midwest, Georgia in the Southeast and Nevada and Arizona in the Southwest, that both candidates consider crucial to their chances of winning next Tuesday’s election.

Polls show the outcome in the election in the seven states and nationally as too close to call. Nearly 57 million people have already voted at polling stations or by mail, and tens of thousands are continuing to cast early ballots, even as a sliver of voters remains undecided.

Retired Green Bay Packers football quarterback Brett Favre, a popular figure in Wisconsin, is scheduled to join Trump at his rally in Green Bay. Downstate, several musicians popular with younger audiences — Mumford & Sons, Gracie Abrams, Remi Wolf and members of the rock band The National — are scheduled to appear with Harris at her rally in the state capital, Madison.

During a campaign rally in Raleigh, North Carolina, Harris repeated her promise to be “a president for all Americans.”

“Unlike Donald Trump, I don’t believe people who disagree with me are the enemy,” the vice president said, echoing themes from the speech she gave Tuesday night near the White House in what her campaign described as the “closing argument” for her campaign.

Trump rallied with supporters in Rocky Mount, North Carolina, pledging to end inflation in consumer prices, while vowing, “I will stop the massive invasion of criminals into our country,” his favored description for migrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico border.

“And I will bring back the American dream,” he said. “Isn’t that nice?”

Tens of thousands of supporters watched Harris on Tuesday night on the Ellipse in Washington, while Trump held a campaign rally in Pennsylvania.

Harris pledged to work to improve people’s lives and said she would show up to work at the White House with a to-do list, while saying Trump is focused only on himself and would begin a new term starting in January with an enemies list.

Her speech was given in the same area where Trump addressed his supporters on Jan. 6, 2021, shortly before a mob stormed the U.S. Capitol to in an attempt to prevent the certification of President Joe Biden’s victory.

“Look, we know who Donald Trump is. He is the person who stood at this very spot nearly four years ago and sent an armed mob to the United States Capitol to overturn the will of the people in a free and fair election,” Harris said.

Polls show the contest in a virtual dead heat.

Before heading to Allentown, Pennsylvania, a city with a Latino-majority population, Trump spoke Tuesday at his oceanside Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida. He described Harris as “grossly incompetent … a total trainwreck.”

On the campaign trail, Harris and Trump have traded frequent insults.

Trump has described Harris as someone with a “low IQ” and said she would be like “a play toy” for other world leaders. “They’re going to walk all over her,” he said.

Some of Trump’s former top aides from his 2017-2021 term in the White House described him as a fascist with the intent to govern in a second term as an authoritarian. Harris said she agreed with the characterization.

Trump returned the taunt to describe Harris the same way.

The importance of the seven battleground states cannot be overstated.

U.S. presidential elections are not decided by the national popular vote but rather through the Electoral College, which turns the election into 50 state-by-state contests, with 48 of the 50 states awarding all their electoral votes to the winner in their states. Nebraska and Maine allocate theirs by both statewide and congressional district vote counts.

The number of electoral votes in each state is based on population, so the biggest states hold the most sway in determining the overall national outcome, with the winner needing 270 of the 538 electoral votes to claim the presidency.

Polls show either Harris or Trump holds substantial or comfortable leads in 43 of the states, enough for each to get to 200 electoral votes or more. Barring an upset in one of those states, that leaves the outcome to the remaining seven battleground states, where both Harris and Trump have staged frequent rallies, all but ignoring the rest of the country for campaign stops.

Polling in the seven states is easily within the margins of statistical error, leaving the outcome in doubt in all seven.
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Harris promises to ‘represent all Americans’ after Biden ‘garbage’ remark

WASHINGTON — Kamala Harris said she disagrees “with any criticism of people based on who they vote for,” reacting after U.S. President Joe Biden’s reference to Donald Trump’s supporters and “garbage.”

“I will represent all Americans, including those who don’t vote for me,” the vice president said.

Harris, the Democratic nominee for president, made the comment to reporters as she prepared to campaign in three states. Her words were an attempt to blunt the controversy over Biden’s rhetoric with less than a week until the end of the campaign.

The tumult began Tuesday night around the time that Harris was delivering a unifying message in a speech near the White House. Inside the building, Biden was criticizing Trump’s recent Madison Square Garden rally, where a comedian described Puerto Rico as an “island of garbage.”

“The only garbage I see floating out there is his supporters. His demonization of Latinos is unconscionable, and it’s un-American,” Biden said in a campaign call organized by the Hispanic advocacy group Voto Latino. “It’s totally contrary to everything we’ve done, everything we’ve been.”

Biden and the White House rushed to explain that the president was talking about the rhetoric on stage, not Trump’s supporters themselves. But Republicans seized on Biden’s comments, claiming they were an echo of the time when Hillary Clinton, as the Democratic nominee against Trump in 2016, said half of Trump’s supporters belong to a “basket of deplorables.”

In attacking Biden, and by extension, Harris, Republicans are glossing over Trump’s own history of insulting and demonizing rhetoric, such as calling the United States a “garbage can for the world” or describing political opponents as “the enemy within.” Trump has also described Harris as a “stupid person” and “lazy as hell,” and he’s questioned whether she was on drugs.

Trump has also refused demands to apologize for the comment about Puerto Rico at his rally, acknowledging “somebody said some bad things” but “I can’t imagine it’s a big deal.”

Political attack lines have a history of occasionally boomeranging back on people who use them. For example, Ohio Senantor JD Vance, now Trump’s running mate, once described Democrats as beholden to “a bunch of childless cat ladies who are miserable at their own lives and the choices that they’ve made.”

Vance’s three-year-old comments were resurfaced once he became the vice presidential nominee, energizing Harris supporters who repurposed the label as a point of pride on shirts and bumper stickers — much like Trump’s supporters once cheerfully branded themselves as “deplorables.”

On Wednesday morning, Harris’ running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, downplayed Biden’s comments in television interviews.

He told “CBS Mornings” that Biden “was very clear that he’s speaking about the rhetoric we heard,” not the supporters themselves.

Walz made a similar comment on ABC’s “Good Morning America,” where he emphasized that Democrats’ inclusive message.

“Let’s be very clear, the vice president and I have made it absolutely clear that we want everyone as a part of this,” he said. “Donald Trump’s divisive rhetoric is what needs to end.”
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Some of the most bizarre moments from US political history

The run-up to the 2024 U.S. election has been full of twists and turns but, believe it or not, stranger things have happened in U.S. election history. From incarcerated candidates to electoral mayhem, America has seen it all.
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Presidential candidates: Final pitches before US election

The two candidates for U.S. president are making what they call their “closing arguments” to voters in this final week before the election. VOA’s Senior Washington Correspondent Carolyn Presutti brings us the sights and sounds from two rallies.
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US court declines RFK Jr’s request to order 2 states to drop him from ballot

The U.S. Supreme Court denied a bid Tuesday by former independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to be removed from the ballot in Wisconsin and Michigan for the Nov. 5 election. Kennedy has said he wants voters who would have backed him to cast ballots for the Republican nominee, former President Donald Trump. 

The court declined Kennedy’s emergency requests to order the Wisconsin Elections Commission and Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson to take him off the ballot in those states. Michigan and Wisconsin are among a handful of closely contested states expected to decide the outcome of the race between Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris.  

Conservative Justice Neil Gorsuch dissented from the decision concerning the Michigan ballot only. No other justice publicly dissented. 

Kennedy, an environmental lawyer and anti-vaccine activist known by his initials RFK Jr., has sought the Supreme Court’s intervention in his attempts to stay on the ballot in some states while dropping off others. In September, the Supreme Court rejected his bid to be restored to the ballot in New York. 

Kennedy suspended his campaign in August and endorsed the former president’s candidacy. Kennedy has urged his supporters everywhere to back Trump and has withdrawn from the ballot in a number of Republican-leaning states.  
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For expats in Ukraine, election back in US hits home

The outcome of the U.S. election and the possible changes in Washington’s foreign policy are of special significance to the 3 million American expatriates eligible to vote in next week’s U.S. presidential elections. In few places is that outcome more tangible than in Ukraine, where a few thousand Americans have, for various reasons, chosen to live after Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion. Lesia Bakalets speaks to several expatriates in Ukraine and sends this report from Kyiv.
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With a week to go, Harris, Trump trade insults

The highly contentious, tightly contested U.S. presidential election is now a week away.

Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, is set to deliver her so-called “closing argument” to voters in a Tuesday evening speech near the White House. Republican former President Donald Trump is campaigning in Pennsylvania, one of the seven political battleground states likely to determine the overall national outcome.

Both candidates, each disparaging the other as unfit to lead the country for a new four-year term, are looking for any small advantage to woo the sliver of voters who have not made up their minds in what could be one of the country’s closest votes in decades.  

Polls show the contest in a virtual dead heat, with Harris and Trump tied in some crucial states or only narrowly ahead or behind, all within the statistical margin of error. A few thousand votes in each of the seven key states could prove crucial.

Last-minute speeches by Harris and Trump could sway some undecided voters to finally make a choice, but the campaigns’ get-out-the-vote efforts targeting their already likely committed supporters to cast their ballots in the last days of the campaign or on Election Day could prove even more decisive.

Nearly 49 million people have voted early, either at polling stations or by mail, ahead of next Tuesday’s official Election Day, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab. More than 155 million voted in the 2020 election.

Before heading to Allentown, Pennsylvania, a city with a Latino-majority population, Trump spoke at his oceanside Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida. He described Harris as “grossly incompetent … a total trainwreck.”

But Trump took no questions from reporters and did not mention comic Tony Hinchcliffe’s joke at a Trump rally Sunday at New York’s Madison Square Garden, claiming the Hispanic U.S. territory of Puerto Rico is a “floating island of garbage.”

Trump’s campaign has distanced itself from the joke. Trump has not publicly commented about the remarks but told ABC News he does not know Hinchcliffe, saying, “Someone put him up there. I don’t know who he is.”

Trump also maintained he didn’t hear the joke, even as it has been played on television and written about extensively. When asked what he made of the joke, he did not take the opportunity to denounce it, repeating that he didn’t hear it.

He called the New York rally “an absolute lovefest.”

Puerto Ricans living on the island are Americans but cannot vote in the election because only people living in U.S. states, not territories, can vote in presidential elections. But hundreds of thousands of people who grew up on the island have moved to the U.S. mainland, as have their relatives, and they can vote in whatever state they live in.

With hundreds of thousands of Puerto Rican votes critical to the outcome in some of the battleground states, the Harris campaign quickly produced a digital ad saying Latino voters “deserve better” than what the former president represents.

A Harris campaign official told NBC News that the 30-second spot will run online in battleground states on platforms like YouTube TV, Hulu and Snapchat, where Latinos consume a lot of their media.   

Pennsylvania alone, which both candidates see as crucial to winning the presidency, is home to more than 300,000 eligible Puerto Rican voters, according to the Latino Data Hub at the University of California Los Angeles.  

There are also sizable Puerto Rican populations in North Carolina, Wisconsin and Michigan, three other battleground states.  

On the campaign trail, Harris and Trump have traded frequent insults.

Trump has described Harris as someone with a low IQ and said she would be like “a play toy” for other world leaders. “They’re going to walk all over her,” he has said.  

Some of Trump’s former top aides from his 2017-2021 term in the White House described him as a fascist with the intent to govern in a second term as an authoritarian. Harris said she agreed with the characterization.  

Trump returned the taunt to describe Harris the same way.

Harris is doing five interviews ahead of her speech on the Ellipse where she plans to portray Trump as a threat to American democracy. Local police are anticipating a crowd of about 50,000 people.

The Ellipse is the same site where Trump exhorted his supporters on January 6, 2021, to go to the Capitol and “fight like hell” to try to block Congress from certifying that Democrat Joe Biden had defeated him in the 2020 election.  

More than 1,500 protesters were arrested for their roles in the ensuing riot at the American seat of government, where 140 law enforcement personnel were injured. The demonstrators caused $2.9 million in property damage to the Capitol as they smashed windows and doors and rampaged through congressional offices.  

More than 1,000 rioters have been convicted of an array of offenses, with some of the most serious offenders sentenced to years of imprisonment.

Trump says if he wins the election, he might pardon them.  

The Harris camp says that in her speech she will contrast what she says her presidency would encompass compared to a second Trump tenure, contending that Trump will be focused “on himself and his ‘enemies list’ instead of the American people,” while she will be “waking up every day focused on a ‘to-do list’ of priorities to lower costs and help Americans’ lives.”  

Harris has often said it is time to “turn the page” on the Trump era.

U.S. presidential elections are not decided by the national popular vote but rather through the Electoral College vote, which turns the election into 50 state-by-state contests, with 48 of the 50 states awarding all their electoral votes to the winner in their states, either Harris or Trump. Nebraska and Maine allocate theirs by both statewide and congressional district vote counts.   

The number of electoral votes in each state is based on population, so the biggest states hold the most sway in determining the overall national outcome, with the winner needing 270 of the 538 electoral votes to claim the presidency.   

Polls show either Harris or Trump holds substantial or somewhat comfortable leads in 43 of the states, enough for each to get to 200 electoral votes or more. Barring an upset in one of those states, that leaves the outcome to the remaining seven states – a northern tier of three states (Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin), two states in the Southeast (Georgia and North Carolina) and two in the Southwest (Arizona and Nevada).   

Polling in the seven states is easily within the margins of statistical error, leaving the outcome in doubt in all seven. 
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US farmers weigh tariffs, farm bill as Election Day nears

U.S. farmers are facing economic headwinds as they head to the polls this election year. VOA’s Kane Farabaugh has more from Illinois
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Unpacking the difference between the Electoral College and the popular vote

Americans go to the polls November 5 to choose the next U.S. president. However, the national vote tally does not determine which candidate wins the White House. The Electoral College has the final say. But how does this work?
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The potential impact of Trump’s tariff proposal

Former U.S. President Donald Trump has proposed sweeping tariffs if elected for a second term: a 20% universal tax and 60% tax on goods from China. He argues that the policy will help create jobs, shrink the national debt and boost government revenue for public services, such as child care. Most economists, however, agree that it is ultimately U.S. consumers who will pay more. Economists also warn of unintended ripple effects that could do more harm than good to the U.S. economy. This explainer video explores how increased tariffs might affect U.S. buyers, domestic and foreign producers, and the budget.
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Fast facts about the US election

The U.S. presidential election takes place Nov. 5. Here is a primer on some basic facts and information regarding the election.

Who is running in the US elections?

Apart from the most prominent contest — the presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump — there are myriad other races on the ballot, spanning national, state and local levels.

All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for election as they are every two years, with members of the House serving two-year terms. In the Senate, where members serve six-year terms, 34 of the 100 seats are on the ballot this year.

In state governors’ races, 11 seats are up for grabs. There are also thousands of state and local races, including seats for state lawmakers, mayors and municipal positions.

Apart from these races, many states also have measures, known as referendums, on the ballot that ask voters to decide on a range of issues, from abortion law to tax policy and marijuana use.

When does voting take place?

Each state is different. Nearly all 50 states and the District of Columbia offer some version of in-person voting on Election Day, which this year is Nov. 5. Most states also offer mail-in voting, in which voters can return their ballots by mail or to a designated drop-off location. A majority of states also offer early voting, with the earliest states having begun voting in September.

WATCH: Millions who don’t cast ballots on Nov. 5 are still voting in US election

What are the battleground states?

The seven states where the race between Harris and Trump is predicted to be the closest are: Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada. Battleground states can shift over time and are also known as swing states, toss-up states or purple states (the color resulting from a mix of the traditional Democratic color — blue — and the Republican color — red).

WATCH: What makes Nevada a ‘pure battleground’ state

Who can vote in the election?

To vote in the U.S. presidential election, a potential voter must be a U.S. citizen, 18 years old on or before Election Day, and meet residency requirements, which vary from state to state.

Potential voters must also be registered to vote by their state’s voter registration deadline. Some states also restrict voting for those with felony convictions or people who are mentally incapacitated.

Generally, Americans who live abroad can vote by absentee ballot. However, for the general presidential election, U.S. citizens who reside in U.S. territories — including Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Guam, the Northern Marianas Islands and American Samoa —­ cannot vote.

Who is projected to win?

Polls for the presidential race have been split since the two main candidates were finalized at their party conventions in late summer. However, in the weeks leading up to the election, the polls have tightened even further. Many polls now show the margin between the candidates in all seven battleground states — where the outcome of the vote will likely be determined — to be within the polls’ margins of error.

WATCH: Pennsylvania: The state that could decide it all

How does the Electoral College work?

When U.S. voters cast their ballots for president, they do not vote for their presidential candidate directly. Technically, they choose electors, part of the Electoral College, who then choose the president. The Electoral College is a state-by-state system made up of representatives, or electors, that are allocated based on the voting results in each state.

The framers of the U.S. Constitution wanted a presidential candidate to win a series of regional elections, as opposed to one nationwide vote, so that the president could better represent the diverse interests of the country. In all but two states, all of a state’s electors go to the winning candidate no matter how narrow a popular victory.

There are 538 electors, a number that always stays the same. That number is equal to the total voting membership of the United States Congress — 435 representatives, plus 100 senators, as well as three electors from the District of Columbia. To win the presidency, a candidate must win a majority, or 270, of the electoral votes.

Does the popular vote matter?

The Electoral College winner determines the presidency, not the popular vote. It is possible under the U.S. system for a candidate to become president without winning the popular vote. That is because a candidate’s winning states could be won by small margins while their losing states are lost by bigger margins.

This has happened to five presidents: John Quincy Adams, Rutherford B. Hayes, Benjamin Harrison, George W. Bush and Trump in 2016.

Critics of the Electoral College point to these cases to argue that the system does not represent the national will. Supporters of the Electoral College say the system protects small states as well as geographically large states with small populations.

How are the votes counted?

The U.S. does not have a central election committee — each state organizes its own process for counting the ballots. Local and state officials report the election results in real time, and news agencies then use those results, often along with statistical techniques, to project a winner.

News outlets often “call” a winner before every ballot is counted and before officials announce the final results. This is because it usually takes days or weeks before all votes are counted in many districts and often, partial results are enough to mathematically determine a winner. However, when a race is close, news agencies usually wait to call a winner until final results are given.

The first results are not reported until polls have officially closed.

When will the results be known?

In-person voting ends the evening of Nov. 5 with each jurisdiction setting its own time for the closure of polls. Because states have various rules for when ballots can be counted and when mail-in ballots can be accepted, some states will likely not know final results until the day after the election or even later. Close races can also make it difficult for news agencies to call the winner as soon as polls close. As in 2020, when it took several days until they announced the result of the presidential election, it is possible that high-level national races, including the presidency, will not be known until several days after Nov. 5.

How is the election certified?

After votes are tallied, they are certified at the local and state levels. States then issue paperwork identifying the electors who represent the candidate who won the state vote. Electors are typically elected partisans or are appointed by political officials. They meet in their states in December to cast their votes for president and vice president. Then the new Congress, which is seated in January, meets to count the electoral votes and officially announces the winner. The president is sworn into office in an inauguration ceremony on Jan. 20.
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US ballot boxes under attack; Homeland Security warns of ‘heightened, dynamic’ threat environment

Washington — A series of attacks on ballot collection boxes across the United States is ratcheting up the pressure on state and local officials, who are hoping to oversee a safe and peaceful presidential election, both for early voting underway across much of the country and for when millions of Americans go to the polls next week.

The Northwest U.S. state of Washington confirmed to VOA Monday that local police and the FBI are investigating reports of a suspected “incendiary device” that was placed in a ballot drop box in Vancouver, Washington, early Monday.

Officials said no one was injured but that some of the ballots were damaged. Video obtained by local media showed firefighters responding to the scene, with some of the ballots burning on the ground.

Officials across state lines, in nearby Portland, Oregon, reported one of their ballot boxes was also attacked with an incendiary device, about 30 minutes earlier. But a fire suppressant system inside the collection box prevented damage to all but three of the ballots.

“Make no mistake, an attack on a ballot box is an attack on our democracy and completely unacceptable,” said Oregon Secretary of State LaVonne Griffin-Valade in a statement shared with VOA.

Washington state’s secretary of state likewise condemned the apparent attacks.

“I strongly denounce any acts of terror that aim to disrupt lawful and fair elections in Washington state,” said Steve Hobbs. “We take the safety of our election workers seriously and will not tolerate threats or acts of violence that seek to undermine the democratic process.”

The attacks on ballot boxes in Washington and Oregon follow last week’s attack on a mailbox with election ballots in Phoenix, Arizona, in the country’s Southwest. Officials there arrested a suspect for setting fire to the mailbox, damaging about 20 ballots.

The spate of attacks on mailboxes and ballot collection boxes comes as U.S. security officials are issuing new warnings about potential election-related violence at the hands of U.S.-based extremists.

“We expect DVEs [domestic violent extremists] will pose the most significant physical threat to government officials, voters, and elections-related personnel and infrastructure,” the Department of Homeland Security said in an unclassified assessment issued in late September.

Potential targets, the assessment said, included, “polling places, ballot drop box locations, voter registration sites, campaign events, political party offices, and vote counting sites.”

The DHS assessment warned the biggest threat likely stems from what it describes as “anti-government or anti‑authority DVEs [domestic violent extremists], many of whom likely will be inspired by partisan policy grievances or conspiracy theories.”

The DHS and FBI have also amplified their warnings in a series of nonpublic security bulletins sent to police agencies across the country, some of which were obtained by Property of the People, a nonprofit group that describes itself as “dedicated to the aggressive pursuit of governmental transparency.”

Some of the bulletins reviewed by VOA cited growing calls on social media for attacks on ballot collection boxes as well as growing calls for civil war following the attempted assassination of former President and Republican candidate Donald Trump this past July.

“The United States remains in a heightened, dynamic threat environment and we continue to share information with our law enforcement partners about the threats posed by domestic violent extremists in the context of the 2024 election,” a DHS spokesperson told VOA, when asked about the bulletins.

“DHS continues to work with our partners to evaluate and mitigate emerging threats that may arise from domestic or foreign actors,” the spokesperson added. “The department continues to advise federal, state, and local partners to remain vigilant to potential threats and encourages the public to report any suspicious activity to local authorities.”

While U.S. security officials believe the biggest threat of violence may come from U.S.-based anti-government or anti‑authority extremists, U.S. intelligence officials have raised concerns that adversaries like Iran and Russia may also be pushing them to carry out attacks.

A declassified U.S. intelligence assessment issued last week warned officials are “increasingly confident” that Russia is starting to engage in plans “aimed at inciting violence.”

It further assessed Iran also “may try to incite violence.”
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Explainer: Where do Harris and Trump stand on social welfare?

washington — With the U.S. presidential election coming November 5, the importance of social welfare — such as government-run programs for pensions and health care, known as Social Security and Medicare, along with affordable housing, and support for families — is again in the spotlight.

More than 71 million people in the U.S. received benefits from programs administered in 2023 by the Social Security Administration, which helps retired workers and people with disabilities. But the Social Security Trust Fund and Medicare, a federal health insurance program for the elderly, are running out of funds, and without a new source of funding or cuts in benefits are expected to become insolvent by 2035 and 2036, respectively.

Both candidates, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, have pledged to protect Social Security and Medicare.

But the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget released an analysis this week that said, if left unaddressed, Harris’ economic agenda would see Social Security go bankrupt in nine years, while Trump’s agenda would force its insolvency in six years.

Meanwhile, a housing shortage is driving up prices to buy and rent, while high mortgage rates are slowing home sales, and both candidates are discussing ways to help families with the rising cost of raising children

So, how do the two candidates plan to address these issues?

The candidates have stark differences in their social welfare policies that reflect the values of the two dominant political parties in the U.S., the Democratic and Republican parties, on government intervention and personal responsibility.

Harris and the Democratic Party have generally advocated for the government to actively support vulnerable groups and those struggling to get out of cyclical poverty through higher taxes on the wealthy, which they see as key to achieving social equity and promoting economic mobility.

In contrast, Republicans, including Trump, have generally emphasized the importance of individual accountability, market mechanisms and lower taxes to encourage productivity, arguing that too much government intervention will weaken the economy.

But there is some overlap, especially when it comes to helping families.

VOA Mandarin has compiled the positions and views of the two candidates on Social Security and Medicare, affordable housing and supporting families:

Social Security and Medicare

Trump’s policy: Trump wants to ensure the sustainability of Social Security and Medicare through economic growth, which he hopes to boost by lowering taxes and reducing what he calls “unnecessary” government spending by increasing the privatization options of the health care system to fuel market competition to reduce costs. He also advocates for eliminating taxes on Social Security benefits, arguing that older people should not pay taxes on their benefits. Critics say this will make it even harder to pay for the program.

Harris’ policy: Harris wants to expand Social Security benefits through the Social Security Expansion Act, which proposes raising minimum benefits and adjusting how the cost of living is calculated. She also advocates for long-term home care to be included in Medicare to ease the burden on families caring for the elderly and children. Critics say expanding the programs will make it even harder to pay for them. Harris’ policy continues the Biden administration’s stance of raising taxes on wealthy individuals earning more than $400,000 annually to secure funding for Social Security and Medicare. Harris also says health care costs can be controlled through drug price negotiations and reducing fraud.

Housing

Trump’s policy: Trump wants to promote housing market development by reducing building and land-use regulations to increase the housing supply and reduce home buying costs through competition. He opposes construction of low-income housing in traditional single-family housing areas and blames some of the high housing costs on inflation and illegal immigration, both of which he says he’ll reduce if elected, including through mass deportations. Critics argue that housing prices spiked with rising interest rates and high demand during the COVID pandemic and say mass deportations would only worsen the supply problem as much of the construction labor force consists of immigrants.

Harris’ policy: Harris advocates for tax incentives and increased federal funding to support affordable housing construction that markets are not serving and says her plan will add 3 million new homes within the next four years. She supports a $25,000 down payment assistance for first-time homebuyers and restricting companies from large-scale acquisitions of residential properties to combat speculation and protect the housing needs of ordinary families. Critics argue that low-income housing reduces nearby property values and that raising subsidies for home purchases could drive up demand and lead to higher housing prices.

Helping families

Child Tax Credit (CTC)

Trump’s policy: Trump as president temporarily raised the CTC, from $1,000 to $2,000 per child in 2017 and expanded the income cap to make more families eligible, but the expanded program expires in 2025. If elected again, Trump says he’ll make this policy permanent. However, a key requirement is that only households making income are entitled to the tax credit as Trump believes it incentivizes people to work. Critics say it’s unfair to unemployed parents who are already struggling.

Harris’ policy: Harris wants to reinstate and expand the CTC to families without income so that all families with newborns receive a $6,000 tax credit per child, those with children aged 1-6 get $3,600 per year for each child, and those with children aged 7-17 receive $3,000 per child. Critics say the subsidy would weaken incentives for unemployed parents to find work.

Paid family leave

Trump’s policy: Candidate Trump’s policy on family leave — to take care of a child, or sick relative or personal medical issue — is not so clear, though his campaign says he supports it. As president, he signed into law 12 weeks of such paid leave for federal employees and a tax credit for companies that give low-income workers paid family leave.

Harris’ policy: Harris supports 12 weeks of paid family and medical leave for all employees that would be funded through a payroll tax shared between employers and employees.

Childcare costs

Trump’s policy: In September, Trump suggested revenue from tariff increases could raise money to support childcare, and his running mate, JD Vance, has suggested more family members, such as grandparents, should be involved in family childcare to reduce expenses.

Harris’ policy: Harris proposed capping family spending on childcare for low-income workers to 7% of household income and raising the level of wages for childcare workers while lowering the cost of care.

Critics note that neither candidate has provided details of their plans.

Adrianna Zhang contributed to this report.
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Biden casts 2024 election ballot near his Delaware home

NEW CASTLE, Delaware — President Joe Biden has cast an early ballot in the 2024 general election. 

It’s a bittersweet moment for Biden, who decided to end his reelection campaign in July because of growing concerns about his health and Democrats’ worries about his chances of defeating former President Donald Trump. Biden voted on Monday at the state of Delaware Department of Elections, not far from his home outside Wilmington, Delaware at an early voting site, where voters were lined up on the street to cast ballots. 

Biden chatted with voters as he waited in line to cast his ballot, and helped push an older woman in a wheelchair ahead of him. The president waited in line for about 40 minutes before he cast his ballot. 

He handed his identification to the election worker, who had him sign a form and announced: “Joseph Biden now voting.” 

As the president cast his ballot behind a black drape, some first-time voters were announced and the room erupted in cheers for them. 

For all but a few years since 1970, Biden has either held office or been running for one during election season. 

But this year, his hopes lie with a newer generation of Democrats, including three on the Delaware ballot looking to make history. 

Vice President Kamala Harris, whom Biden endorsed after dropping out, is vying to become the first Black woman and first person of South Asian descent to serve as president. 

State Sen. Sarah McBride is looking to become the first openly transgender member of the U.S. House. 

McBride, a longtime friend of the Biden family, had served as an aide in then-President Barack Obama ‘s administration and on the campaigns in 2006 and 2010 for the president’s late son Beau Biden’s runs for Delaware attorney general. She also worked for former Delaware Gov. Jack Markell. 

McBride hopes to succeed Democratic Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester, who wants to become Delaware’s first Black woman to serve in the U.S. Senate. She has served as Delaware’s lone representative in the House since 2017. 

On Monday, Biden had breakfast with Blunt Rochester. He’s known her family for decades, and campaigned with her father, Theodore “Ted” Blunt, who served on the Wilmington City Council for almost a quarter century, including as president. Biden on Sunday evening formally endorsed Blunt Rochester, cutting a video for her campaign in which he called her “Delaware through and through.” 

Blunt Rochester is vying to succeed Sen. Tom Carper, who has held the seat since 2001 in the solidly Democratic state. He is retiring. 

Early voting in Delaware began on Saturday.

 
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America’s youngest voters help get out the vote for November election

The youngest voters taking part in the U.S. presidential election are called Gen Z. They range in age from roughly 18 to 27 years old. From learning how to vote, to soliciting support door to door, many are embracing the civic process of voting. VOA’s Laurel Bowman has our story. VOA footage and video editing by Saqib Ul Islam.
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How Green Party candidate Jill Stein could affect US election results

In next month’s U.S. presidential election, Green Party candidate Jill Stein is polling at around 1%. But her candidacy could have an outsized impact on the outcome, with some political analysts predicting that even a small percentage of votes for Stein could make a difference in crucial swing states. Maxim Adams has the story. VOA footage by Artem Kohan.
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Missouri sports betting ballot measure highlights national debate about tax rates

JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. — The ads promoting a November ballot measure to legalize sports betting in Missouri tout the potential for millions of new tax dollars devoted to schools. If voters approve the measure, it’s a good bet they will see even more ads offering special promotions for bettors. 

Many of those promotional costs — in which sportsbooks provide cash-like credits for customers to place bets — will be exempt from state taxes, effectively limiting the new revenue for education. 

The Missouri ballot measure highlights an emerging debate among policymakers over how to tax the rapidly growing industry, which has spread from one state — Nevada — to 38 states and Washington, D.C., since the U.S. Supreme Court opened the door to legalized sports wagering in 2018. 

“It’s a fledging industry,” said Brent Evans, an assistant finance professor at Georgia College & State University who has taught classes on gambling. “So nobody really knows what is a reasonable tax.” 

Since authorizing sports betting, Illinois, Ohio, Tennessee and Washington, D.C., all have already raised or restructured their tax rates. And Colorado and Virginia have pared back the tax deductions they originally allowed. 

Tax rates range from a low of 6.75% in states such Iowa to 51% in states such as New York. That tax gap is even wider, because Iowa allows promotional bets to be deducted from taxable revenue while New York does not. 

About half the states allow tax deductions for promotional costs. It’s a common way of enticing people to start — or continue — making bets. But in the short-term, it also can decrease the tax revenue available for governments and schools. 

Missouri’s proposed 10% tax rate on sports betting revenue is below the national average of 19% that sportsbooks paid to states last year. Because of deductions for “free play,” there could be some months in which sportsbooks owe nothing to the state. Missouri’s proposed constitutional amendment acknowledges that possibility, stating that negative balances can be carried over from one month to the next until revenue rises enough to owe taxes. 

Unlike in some states, Missouri’s amendment caps the amount of promotional credits that can be deducted from taxable revenue, at 25% of all wagers. But it appears unlikely that cap would come into play. An analysis conducted by consultant Eilers & Krejcik Gaming for amendment supporters projects promotional bets will comprise around 8% of total wagers in Missouri’s first year of sports betting, declining after that. 

The Missouri proposal “is very much in line with what has worked and been effective in other states,” said Jack Cardetti, a spokesman for Winning for Missouri Education, the group backing the measure. 

After voters narrowly approved it, Colorado launched sports betting in 2020 with a 10% tax rate and full deductions for promotional bets. It logged $2.7 billion of total bets during its first full fiscal year, yielding $8.1 million in taxes, just slightly below legislative projections. But Colorado changed its law starting in 2023 to cap promotional tax deductions at 2.5% of total bets, gradually declining to 1 .75% by July 2026. 

Colorado’s sports betting tax revenue has since risen to over $30 million in its most recent fiscal year. That growth led lawmakers to place a proposal on the November ballot seeking permission for the state to keep more than the original $29 million limit on sports betting tax revenue. 

Capping tax deductions for promotional bets is a good step, said Richard Auxier, a principal policy associate at the nonprofit Tax Policy Center. But he questions why some states exempt them from taxes in the first place. 

“We don’t give out free samples of cannabis when a state legalizes cannabis,” Auxier said. “Is this something you want to be subsidizing through your state tax policy — to encourage people to gamble?” 

The Missouri amendment was placed on the November ballot by initiative petition after legislation to legalize sports betting repeatedly stalled in the state Senate. The $43 million campaign — a record for a Missouri ballot measure — has been been funded entirely by DraftKings and FanDuel, which dominate the nationwide sports betting marketplace. If the measure passes, the companies could apply for two statewide licenses to conduct online sports betting. The amendment authorizes additional sports betting licenses for Missouri casinos and professional sports teams. 

The $14 million opposition campaign has been funded entirely by Caesars Entertainment, which operates three of Missouri’s 13 casinos. Although Caesars generally supports sports betting, it opposes “the way this measure is written,” said Brooke Foster, a spokesperson for the opposition group Missourians Against the Deceptive Online Gambling Amendment. 

In some other states, sports betting is run through casinos. Though research is limited, a study of seven states released last year found that casino gambling revenue declined as online sports betting increased. 

“There will definitely be a shift from placing bets in a physical space with a Missouri incorporated casino versus hopping on an app in your living room,” Foster said. 

The effect of different tax rates can be seen in Illinois and New Jersey, which spearheaded the court challenge leading to widespread legal sports betting. People in each state placed between $11.5 billion and $12 billion of sports bets last year, resulting in $1 billion of revenue for sportsbooks after winnings were paid to customers, according to figures from the American Gaming Association. 

New Jersey took in $129 million in tax revenue, based on a 14.25% tax rate for online sports bets and a 9.75% tax rate with some promotional deductions for sports bets at casinos and racetracks. Illinois took in $162 million of tax revenue — one-quarter more than New Jersey — with a 15% tax rate in most places and no promotional deductions. 

But Illinois officials weren’t satisfied with those results. Beginning in July, Illinois imposed a progressive tax scale, starting with a 20% tax on sports betting revenue of less than $30 million and rising to a 40% rate on revenue exceeding $200 million. 

Some sportsbooks representatives had raised the possibility of leaving Illinois if tax rates rose. But that hasn’t happened. 

There’s also not much evidence that sportsbooks worsen the odds for wagers in states where they pay higher taxes, said Joe Weinert, executive vice president of Spectrum Gaming Group, a consulting firm. 

“The sports betting operators compete vigorously for bettors,” he said, “and how you compete vigorously is to offer attractive odds and good promotions.” 
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Trump headlines New York rally after allies’ racist remarks; Harris rallies in Philadelphia

NEW YORK/PHILADELPHIA — Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump headlined a rally at New York’s Madison Square Garden on Sunday that began with a series of vulgar and racist remarks by allies of the former president. 

Trump, a New York celebrity for decades, hoped to use the event at the iconic venue known for Knicks basketball games and Billy Joel concerts to deliver his closing argument against Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, even though the state last backed a Republican presidential candidate in 1984. 

“I’d like to begin by asking a very simple question. Are you better off now than you were four years ago?” Trump said at the start of his speech. The crowd shouted: “No.” 

He went on to promise that he would stop an “invasion of criminals coming into our country” if he wins the Nov. 5 election and called Harris a “very low IQ individual.” 

The list of at least 20 opening speakers varied widely from former pro wrestler Hulk Hogan to former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani to Trump’s sons Eric and Don Jr. 

Some of Trump’s introductory speakers used racist and misogynistic language in warming up a capacity crowd. 

Rudy Giuliani, the one-time New York City mayor and a former personal lawyer to Trump, falsely claimed that Harris was “on the side of the terrorists” in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and wanted to bring Palestinians to the United States. 

Comedian Tony Hinchcliffe used crass language in joking that Latinos “love making babies” and called the Caribbean U.S. territory of Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage.” 

Puerto Rican singer Ricky Martin posted a clip of the comments on his Instagram and wrote, in Spanish, “This is what they think of us.” 

Harris earlier on Sunday visited a Puerto Rican restaurant in Philadelphia in the must-win state of Pennsylvania to encourage people to vote. She posted a video on social media promising to “invest in Puerto Rico’s future” as president.  

While Puerto Ricans are U.S. citizens, those living on the island cannot vote in U.S. general elections. However, millions of Puerto Ricans who have moved to the mainland United States can fully participate in elections, and many have taken up residence in the battleground state of Pennsylvania. 

Harris’s campaign in an email said the Madison Square Garden rally was “mirroring the same dangerously divisive and demeaning message” as Trump. 

Trump’s 2016 presidential opponent, Democrat Hillary Clinton, has accused him of “re-enacting” a pro-Nazi rally that was held at Madison Square Garden in 1939 on the eve of World War Two. 

Trump’s critics have long accused him of empowering white supremacists with dehumanizing and racist rhetoric. 

Trump rejected the comparison to the 1930s. “This is called Make America Great Again, that’s all this is,” he said on Friday. 

“Today, this is Donald Trump’s house,” said the wrestler Hulk Hogan in a speech at the New York event on Sunday, later rejecting accusations that Trump is a fascist: “I don’t see any Nazis in here.” 

U.S. billionaire Elon Musk, who is supporting Trump’s reelection bid with his X social media platform, enormous wealth and cash giveaways that have raised legal questions, was greeted to the stage with chants of “Elon.” 

“This is the kind of positive energy that America is all about,” Musk said. 

Musk, who Trump has said he would tap to lead a new government efficiency commission, said the federal budget could be reduced by “at least” $2 trillion. Federal outlays topped $6.75 trillion in fiscal 2024, which ended Sept. 30. 

Trump got cheers inside the arena for his tough-on-migrants rhetoric. He vowed to ban sanctuary cities and invoke the 1798 Alien Enemies Act law to deport immigrants with criminal records. 

Polls show the rival candidates are neck and neck in the battleground states that will decide the next president with just over a week until Election Day. More than 38 million votes have already been cast in early and mail-in voting. 

Trump has been seeking to tie Harris to the Biden administration’s handling of immigration and the economy. Last week, Trump debuted a new attack line: “She broke it, and I promise you I will fix it.” 

The U.S. economy has outperformed the rest of the developed world since the COVID crisis, and stock markets hit record highs this year. But high prices of food, utilities and housing have roiled voters, who believe the economy is headed in the wrong direction. 

Harris, who held a rally with Bruce Springsteen in Atlanta on Thursday and Beyonce in Houston on Friday, will hold another high-profile event with a speech on Tuesday on the National Mall in Washington, where she will highlight contrasts between herself and Trump. 

“He is full of grievance. He is full of dark language that is about retribution and revenge,” Harris said of Trump in Philadelphia on Sunday. 

Trump, who held a rally in Long Island, New York, in September, has said he is making a play for the state. Ronald Reagan’s reelection was the last time New York backed a Republican for president; Democrat Joe Biden won the state in 2020 by 23 percentage points. 

‘Show of strength’ 

By staging the attention-grabbing event in the world’s biggest media market, Trump could help boost Republican candidates in New York congressional races. The state has seven competitive seats that could help determine whether the party holds onto the U.S. House of Representatives next year. 

It could also give Trump a boost in nearby northeastern Pennsylvania, a battleground state that has increasingly become home for New York commuters. 

Trump’s campaign said the event at the 19,500-seat arena, which can cost upwards of $1 million to rent, was sold out. Tickets are free and on a first-come-first-served basis, as was the case with Harris’ Houston rally. 

A crowd of some 30,000 people attended Harris’ rally with Beyonce on Friday night in Houston, and about 20,000 attended the Atlanta rally. 

“My internal polling is my instinct,” Harris said to reporters in Philadelphia when asked how the campaign is faring in its internal election projections. 

“The momentum is with us,” she said. 

After Sunday’s neighborhood Philadelphia stops, Harris plans to visit every battleground state in coming days, including a Madison, Wisconsin, rally and concert with folk rock band Mumford & Sons and a Las Vegas event with Mexican pop band Mana. 
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Harris, Trump look to sway the last undecided voters

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are headed into the final full week of campaigning ahead of the November 5 presidential election. Both are looking for any small advantage they can gain to woo the sliver of voters who have not made up their minds in what could be one of the country’s closest votes in decades.

Harris, the Democratic candidate, on Sunday visited Philadelphia, the country’s sixth biggest city and a Democratic stronghold where she needs to pile up her vote count in the political battleground state of Pennsylvania.

It is one of seven tightly contested states both she and Trump, her Republican challenger, have frequently visited and plan to head to in the last days of the campaign for a new four-year term in the White House starting in January.

Harris attended a church service in the morning, while planning to also stop at a barber shop, eat at a Puerto Rican restaurant and visit a youth basketball gym.

Meanwhile, Trump is staging a major rally at Madison Square Garden, self-described as “the world’s most famous arena,” in his native New York City. Poll show Trump has almost no chance of winning the vote in New York state, where he received less than 40% in 2020.  

But he wanted to hold a rally at the 19,000-seat arena and some supporters started lining up Saturday morning to get in more than 24 hours later. Hundreds of major political addresses, pop star concerts and basketball and hockey matches have been held there for decades.

“It’s MSG, it’s Madison Square Garden,” Trump told an interviewer during a recent radio show. “Guys like you and I, that means a lot, those words. Madison Square Garden, right? Don’t you think so? … It’s a very big stop.”

Harris is planning to make what her campaign is calling its “closing argument” to voters on Tuesday with an address on the Ellipse in Washington, not far from the White House. She is hoping to draw a pronounced contrast with Trump by speaking at the site, the spot where Trump exhorted his supporters on January 6, 2021, to go to the Capitol and “fight like hell” to try to block Congress from certifying that Democrat Joe Biden had defeated him in the 2020 election.

More than 1,500 protesters were arrested in the ensuing riot at the American seat of government and 140 law enforcement personnel injured. The demonstrators caused $2.9 million in property damage to the Capitol as they smashed windows and doors and rampaged through congressional offices.

More than 1,000 rioters have been convicted of an array of offenses, with some of the most serious offenders sentenced to years of imprisonment. Trump says if he wins the election, he might pardon them.

The University of Florida’s Election Lab reports that more than 41 million people have already voted either in person at polling stations or by mail, a number that could prove to be about one-quarter of the total vote. Early voting and mail balloting are continuing throughout much of the country this week.

In 2020, more than 155 million votes were eventually cast, with about one-third of them at polling sites on the official Election Day and the remainder ahead of time or by mail.

Political surveys show the 2024 election is very close, leaving supporters of both candidates able to cherry-pick which surveys to look at if they want to say their candidate is in front. The country’s two most prominent newspapers, The New York Times and The Washington Post, both say Harris narrowly leads in four of the seven battleground states, enough of an edge that would hand her the presidency if she holds on.

But ABC News gives Trump the edge in its analysis, as does the Realclearpolitics.com aggregation of polling.

U.S. presidential elections are not decided by the national popular vote but rather through the Electoral College vote, which turns the election into 50 state-by-state contests, with 48 of the 50 states awarding all their electoral votes to the winner in their states, either Harris or Trump, while Nebraska and Maine allocate theirs by both state and congressional district vote counts.  

The number of electoral votes in each state is based on population, so the biggest states hold the most sway in determining the overall national outcome, with the winner needing 270 of the 538 electoral votes to claim the presidency.  

Polls show either Harris or Trump hold substantial or somewhat comfortable leads in 43 of the states, enough for each to get to 200 electoral votes. Barring an upset in one of those states, that leaves the outcome to the remaining seven states – a northern tier of three states (Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin), two states in the Southeast (Georgia and North Carolina) and two in the Southwest (Arizona and Nevada).  

Polling in the seven states is easily within the margins of statistical error, leaving the outcome in doubt in all seven.
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