ВИБОРЧА ГАЗЕТА

Jitters in Europe ahead of US elections

Europe is bracing for former President Donald Trump’s potential return to power — even as his Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, remains a mostly unknown quantity. Many Europeans believe much is at stake in the nail-biting U.S. elections: from NATO and the transatlantic alliance to Russia’s war on Ukraine, trade relations and the future of their own democracies. Lisa Bryant reports from Paris. 
…

College athletes push for voter turnout while largely avoiding controversy as election nears

Lily Meskers faced an unexpected choice in the lead-up to the first major election she can vote in.

The 19-year-old University of Montana sprinter was among college athletes in the state who received an inquiry from Montana Together asking if she was interested in a name, image and likeness deal to support Sen. Jon Tester, a three-term Democrat seeking re-election. The group, which is not affiliated with the Tester campaign, offered from $400 to $2,400 to athletes willing to produce video endorsements.

Meskers, who is from Colorado but registered to vote in Montana, decided against the deal because she disagrees with Tester’s votes on legislation involving transgender athletes in sports.

“I was like, OK, I believe that this is a political move to try to gain back some voters that he might have lost,” Meskers said. “And me being a female student-athlete myself, I was not going to give my endorsement to someone who I felt didn’t have the same support for me.”

Professional athletes such as LeBron James, Colin Kaepernick and Stephen Curry have taken high-profile stances on hot-button topics and political campaigns in recent years, but college athletes are far less outspoken — even if money is available, according to experts in the NIL field. Being outwardly political can reflect on their school or endanger potential endorsement deals from brands that don’t want controversy. It can certainly establish a public image for an athlete — for better or for worse — or lead to tensions with teammates and coaches who might not feel the same way.

There are examples of political activism by college athletes: A Texas Tech kicker revealed his support for former President Donald Trump on a shirt under his uniform at a game last week and a handful of Nebraska athletes a few days ago teamed up in a campaign ad against an abortion measure on the Tuesday’s ballot.

Still, such steps are considered rare.

“It can be viewed as risky and there may be people telling them just don’t even take that chance because they haven’t made it yet,” said Lauren Walsh, who started a sports branding agency 15 years ago. She said there is often too much to lose for themselves, their handlers and in some cases, their families.

“And these individuals still have to figure out what they’re going to do with the rest of their lives, even those that do end up getting drafted,” she added.

College coaches are not always as reticent. Auburn men’s basketball coach Bruce Pearl has used social media to make it clear he does not support Kamala Harris, Trump’s Democratic opponent in next week’s presidential election. Oklahoma State football coach Mike Gundy once caused a stir with a star player for wearing a shirt promoting a far-right news outlet.

Blake Lawrence, co-founder of the NIL platform Opendorse, noted that this is the first presidential election in the NIL era, which began in July 2021. He said athletes are flocking to opportunities to help increase voter turnout in the 18-to-24 age demographic, adding that one of his company’s partners has had 86 athletes post social media messages encouraging turnout through the first half of the week. 

He said athletes are shying away from endorsing specific candidates or causes that are considered partisan.

“Student-athletes are, for the most part, still developing their confidence in endorsing any type of product or service,” he said. “So if they are hesitant to put their weight behind supporting a local restaurant or an e-commerce product, then they are certainly going to be hesitant to use their social channels in a political way.”

Giving athletes a voice

Many college athletes have opted to focus on drumming up turnout in a non-partisan manner or simply using their platforms to take stands that are not directly political in nature. Some of those efforts can be found in battleground states.

A progressive group called NextGen America said it had signed players in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Virginia to encourage voting among young people. Another organization, The Team, said it prepped 27 college athletes in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Arizona and Michigan to lead volunteer voter participation opportunities for students. The organization also said it got more than 625 coaches to sign a nonpartisan pledge to get their athletes registered to vote.

The Team’s executive director is Joe Kennedy, a former coach who coordinated championship visits and other sporting events at the White House during President Barack Obama’s administration. In early October, it hosted a Zoom event during which panelists such as NCAA President Charlie Baker and WNBA players Nneka Ogwumike and Natasha Cloud gave college athletes advice about using their platforms on campus.

In its early days, The Team seized upon momentum from the record turnout seen in the 2020 election. The NCAA that year said Division I athletes could have Election Day off from practice and play to vote. Lisa Kay Solomon, founder of the All Vote No Play campaign, said even if the athletes don’t immediately take stands on controversial issues, it’s important for them to learn how.

“It is a lot to ask our young people to feel capable and confident on skills they’ve never had a chance to practice,” Solomon said. “We have to model what it means to practice taking risks, practice standing up for yourself, practice pausing to think about what are the values that you care about — not what social media is feeding into your brain, but what do you care about and how do you express that? And how do you do it in a way that honors the kind of future that you want to be a part of?”

Shut up and play?

Two years ago, Tennessee-Martin quarterback Dresser Winn said he would support a candidate in a local district attorney general race in what experts said was very likely the first political NIL deal by a college athlete.

There have been very few since.

The public criticism and fallout for athletes who speak out on politics or social issue can be sharp. Kaepernick, the Super Bowl-winning quarterback of the San Francisco 49ers, hasn’t played in an NFL game since January 2017, not long after he began kneeling during the national anthem at games.

Meskers, the Montana sprinter, said political endorsements through NIL deals could create problems for athletes and their schools.

“I just think that NIL is going to run into a lot of trouble and a lot of struggles if they continue to let athletes do political endorsements,” she said. “I just think it’s messy. But I stand by NIL as a whole. I think it’s really hard as a student athlete to create a financial income and support yourself.”

Walsh said it’s easier for wealthy and veteran stars like James and Ogwumike to take stands. James, the Los Angeles Lakers star, started More Than a Vote — an organization with a mission to “educate, energize and protect Black voters” — in 2020. He has passed the leadership to Ogwumike, who just finished her 13th year in the WNBA and also is the president of the Women’s National Basketball Players Association. More than a Vote is focused on women’s rights and reproductive freedom this year.

“They have very established brands,” Walsh said. “They know who they are and they know what their political stance is. They know that they have a really strong following that — there’s always going to be haters, but they’re also always going to have that strong following of people who listen to everything that they have to say.”

Andra Gillespie, an associate professor at Emory University who teaches African American politics, also said it is rare that a college athlete would make a significant impact with a political stand simply because they tend to have a more regional platform than national. Even celebrities like Taylor Swift and Eminem are better at increasing turnout than championing candidates.

“They are certainly very beneficial in helping to drive up turnout among their fans,” Gillespie said. “The data is less conclusive about whether or not they’re persuasive – are they the ones who are going to persuade you to vote for a particular candidate?”

Athletes as influencers

Still, campaigns know young voters are critical this election cycle, and athletes offer an effective and familiar voice to reach them.

Political and social topics are not often broached, but this week six Nebraska athletes — five softball players and a volleyball player — appeared in an ad paid for by the group Protect Women and Children involving two initiatives about abortion laws on Tuesday’s ballot.

The female athletes backed Initiative 434, which would amend the state constitution to prohibit abortions after the first trimester, with exceptions. Star softball player Jordy Bahl said on social media that the athletes were not paid.

A University of Montana spokesperson said two athletes initially agreed to take part in the NIL deal backing Tester. The school said one withdrew and the other declined to be interviewed.

For Meskers, deciding against the offer boiled down to Tester twice voting against proposals to bar federal funds from going to schools that allow transgender athletes to play women’s sports, a prominent GOP campaign topic. Tester’s campaign said the proposals were amendments to government spending packages, and he didn’t want to play a role in derailing them as government shutdowns loomed.

“As a former public school teacher and school board member, Jon Tester believes these decisions should be made at the local level,” a Tester spokesperson said. “He has never voted to allow men to compete against women.”

Meskers said she believes using influence as college athletes is good and she is in favor of NIL. She just doesn’t think the two should mix specifically for supporting candidates.

“I think especially as student athletes, we do have such a big voice and we do have a platform to use,” she said. “So I think if you’re encouraging people to do their civic duties and get up and go (vote), I think that’s a great thing.” 
…

Kurdish immigrants run for local office in Minnesota

Moorhead, Minnesota, is home to more than 3,000 Kurds, some of whom have been there since the mid-1970s. They are the town’s largest minority group and hope this election might bring them representation in local government. Dakhil Shammo of VOA’s Kurdish service went to Minnesota and met with two local candidates in this story narrated by Amy Katz.
Camera: Kawar Farok
…

Hurricane damage, arson attacks add complexity to US elections

With voting underway in a tightly contested presidential race, election officials in the U.S. are facing additional challenges in the state of North Carolina, where a hurricane ravaged communities, and in the states of Washington and Oregon, where there have been arson attacks on ballot boxes. With Deborah Bloom and Rafael Saakov, Natasha Mozgovaya has the story. Camera: Deborah Bloom and Alexander Bergan.
…

Trump sues US television network for $10 billion over Harris interview

washington — Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump sued CBS News on Thursday over an interview of Vice President Kamala Harris that aired on the network’s “60 Minutes” news program this month.

The lawsuit, filed in federal court in the Northern District of Texas, alleged that the network aired two different responses from Harris responding to a question about the Israel-Hamas war.

The version that aired during the “60 Minutes” program on October 6 did not include what the lawsuit referred to as a “word salad” response from Harris about the Biden administration’s influence on Israel’s conduct of the war.

The lawsuit follows Trump’s threats to revoke CBS’s broadcasting license if elected.

Trump’s campaign and office did not immediately reply to VOA’s email requesting comment.

The suit called for a jury trial and about $10 billion in damages, the filing showed. It alleges violations of a Texas law that prohibits deceptive acts in the conduct of business.

A CBS News spokesperson told VOA that “Trump’s repeated claims against 60 Minutes are false” and that the interview was not doctored.

“60 MINUTES fairly presented” the interview “to inform the viewing audience, and not to mislead it,” the spokesperson said in an email. “The lawsuit Trump has brought today against CBS is completely without merit and we will vigorously defend against it.”

In a statement earlier this month, CBS said “60 Minutes” gave an excerpt of the Harris interview to “Face the Nation” that used a longer section of her answer than what was aired on “60 Minutes.”

“Same question. Same answer. But a different portion of the response,” the statement said. “The portion of her answer on ’60 Minutes’ was more succinct, which allows time for other subjects in a wide-ranging, 21-minute-long segment.”

And in a letter to Trump’s legal counsel earlier this month, CBS said Trump has no legal basis to sue over the interview, CNN reported.

Trump had also agreed to give an interview to “60 Minutes” before ultimately backing out.

Clayton Weimers, the head of the U.S. office of Reporters Without Borders, dismissed the lawsuit as a publicity stunt.

“The lawsuit itself looks like a publicity stunt, but it reinforces the very real threats that Trump has issued to use the U.S. government to punish media outlets he doesn’t like should he regain the White House,” Weimers told VOA.

Some information for this report came from Reuters.
…

Why do Maine and Nebraska split their electoral votes?

Two U.S. states have an Electoral College practice that could impact the upcoming election and explain why Democrats and Republicans have focused on campaigning in Maine and Nebraska. VOA explores why.
…

Musk a no show at start of court hearing on $1 million voter giveaway

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania — Elon Musk did not show up at a Pennsylvania court hearing on Thursday to consider his $1 million giveaway to voters ahead of the Nov. 5election, which could put him at risk of being held in contempt of court.

Musk, a billionaire entrepreneur backing Republican Donald Trump, had been ordered on Wednesday to attend the hearing, where a judge is considering Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner’s bid to halt the giveaway less than a week before the tightly contested presidential election between Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris.

But Musk was not in the courtroom as the hearing got underway at 10 a.m. Eastern Time (1400 GMT).

Musk, the world’s richest person, could face a fine if Judge Angelo Foglietta holds him in contempt of court.

According to published reports, Krasner asked the court for added security for the hearing, saying social media users posted an “avalanche” of inflammatory posts, including antisemitic attacks toward him, and posted his home address.

Musk, meanwhile, is seeking to move the case to federal court, a delaying tactic that could allow him to continue his giveaway.

In a filing, Musk said Krasner’s lawsuit raises questions of free-speech rights and election interference that belong in federal court.

Krasner, who championed progressive causes when running for district attorney, accuses Tesla CEO Musk and his political action committee America PAC of hatching an “illegal lottery scheme to influence voters.”  

Musk has been offering $1 million checks to randomly selected people who sign a petition pledging support for free speech and gun rights.

The offer is limited to registered voters in one of seven states that will likely decide the outcome of the Nov. 5 election – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.  

Musk gave away the first $1 million at an Oct. 19 America PAC rally in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania’s state capital.  

Krasner’s Oct. 28 lawsuit says the giveaway should be stopped because it amounts to an illegal lottery that violates consumer protection laws by using deceptive language.  

Krasner’s office said Musk and America PAC have not published clear rules for the giveaway and has not said how they are protecting voters’ personal information.

He also said people who receive Musk’s money are “not actually chosen at random,” citing two winners who attended two pro-Trump rallies.  

Musk and America PAC’s lawyers did not immediately respond to requests for comment.  

Some legal experts have said Musk’s giveaway could also potentially violate federal laws against paying people to vote or register to vote. Others say he is in the clear because people are only required to sign a petition to enter.  

Krasner filed his lawsuit in a state court and he does not allege the giveaway violates federal law.  

The U.S. Department of Justice warned America PAC the giveaway could violate federal law, according to media reports, but federal prosecutors have not taken any public action.

Musk has so far given nearly $120 million to America PAC, according to federal disclosures, making the group a crucial part of Trump’s bid to regain the White House.  

The entrepreneur has increasingly supported Republican causes and this year became an outspoken Trump supporter.

Trump in turn has said that if elected, he would appoint Musk to head a government efficiency commission. 
…

Trump, Harris discuss China through the lens of domestic concerns

Washington — With domestic hot-button issues dominating the final week of the U.S. presidential campaign, any mention of the U.S.-China competition by candidates Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump has been through the lens of domestic concerns, analysts say.

“American voters are more concerned about domestic issues. Polls show that the so-called China threat ranks behind the economy, immigration, abortion, climate, democracy and other issues for voters,” said Liu Yawei, director of the Carter Center’s China Program.

According to a survey released by YouGov, a U.S. polling organization, only a minority of voters listed U.S. foreign policy as one of the top three issues for them. The survey found Trump’s supporters cared slightly more about foreign policy than Harris’ supporters.

China and domestic policies

Any mention of China has largely been in the context of domestic issues.

In an October 27 rally in New York City, Trump mentioned China twice, saying that if the United States and China were to go to war, the U.S. would “beat them,” and that he would “pass the Trump Reciprocal Trade Act, meaning if China or any other country charges us a 100 or 200% tax or tariff, we [the United States] will then charge them a 100 or 200% tax or tariff.”

Harris made no mention of China during a rally on the same day in the key swing state of Pennsylvania.

Trump has focused on the potential economic effects of competition with China as it relates to American jobs, highlighting trade concerns, flooding of goods, and unfair business practices.

“China has been killing us in trade for years. If I get elected, that’s going to stop,” said Trump at a rally in Cedar Rapids Iowa, in July.

At the Republican National Convention in July, Trump condemned China over several matters including an accusation that Beijing has taken away jobs in the American auto manufacturing industry and that China has posed threats Taiwan.

At a rally in April, Trump said many migrants coming to the U.S. from China are men of “military” or “fighting” age who may be coming here to form a sort of “army.”

Trump has also mentioned China in the context of the fentanyl crisis in the U.S.

“They’re flooding our country with illegal drugs like fentanyl, killing Americans. This has to end, and it’s going to end when we bring tough measures back against China,” he said at a town hall event in New Hampshire in May.

Although Harris has had less to say about China on the campaign trail, she mentioned China at the Democratic National Convention in August, saying she would work to ensure the United States wins the competition on being the global leader in artificial intelligence and space.

She “advocates ‘de-risking’ — reducing interdependence between the United States and China in arenas of advanced technology, principally to ensure that Washington is not assisting Beijing’s military modernization — but she has warned against a tariff-centric economic policy toward China,” said Ali Wyne, a senior researcher at the International Crisis Group, as he described her policies on China.

But the two candidates and their respective political parties have more in common than differences in their rhetoric on China, said Dennis Wilder, the CIA’s former deputy assistant director for East Asia and the Pacific and National Security Council’s (NSC) director for China under President George W. Bush.

“China has not been debated in this election because the American public and political class almost universally share the same negative views of China. Polling shows favorable views of China in the U.S. in single digits.”

While Washington’s policies toward Beijing can impact domestic issues such as jobs and cost of products, conflicts in other parts of the world have also overshadowed U.S. policy toward China in the eyes of many American voters, analysts said.

“Strategic competition between the United States and China is not top of mind for American voters. They are more concerned about the state of the economy and the cost of health care, said Wyne.

“And to the extent that foreign policy issues are shaping their considerations, they are understandably focused on a raging war between Russia and Ukraine and the potential for a regional war in the Middle East.” 
…

European allies face challenging times, whoever wins US presidential election

BERLIN — The United States’ European allies are bracing for an America that’s less interested in them no matter who wins the presidential election — and for old traumas and new problems if Donald Trump returns to the White House.

The election comes more than 2 1/2 years into Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, in which Washington has made the single biggest contribution to Kyiv’s defense. There are question marks over whether that would continue under Trump, and how committed he would be to NATO allies in general.

A win by Vice President Kamala Harris could be expected to bring a continuation of current policy, though with Republican opposition and growing war fatigue among the U.S. public there are concerns in Europe that support would wane.

Trump’s appetite for imposing tariffs on U.S. partners also is causing worry in a Europe already struggling with sluggish economic growth. But it’s not just the possibility of a second Trump presidency that has the continent anxious about tougher times ahead.

European officials believe U.S. priorities lie elsewhere, no matter who wins. The Middle East is top of President Joe Biden’s list right now, but the long-term priority is China.

“The centrality of Europe to U.S. foreign policy is different than it was in Biden’s formative years,” said Rachel Tausendfreund, a senior research fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin. “And in that way, it is true that Biden is the last trans-Atlantic president.”

The U.S. will continue to pivot toward Asia, she said. “That means Europe has to step up. Europe has to become a more capable partner and also become more capable of managing its own security area.”

Germany’s defense minister, Boris Pistorius, remarked when he signed a new defense pact with NATO ally Britain that the U.S. will focus more on the Indo-Pacific region, “so it is only a question of, will they do much less in Europe because of that or only a little bit less.”

Ian Lesser, a distinguished fellow at the German Marshall Fund in Brussels, said that “above all, Europe is looking for predictability from Washington,” and that’s in short supply in a turbulent world in which any administration will face other demands on its attention. “But the potential for disruption is clearly greater in the case of a potential Trump administration.”

“There is an assumption of essential continuity” under Harris that’s probably well-founded, he said, with many people who have shaped policy under Biden likely to remain. “It’s very much the known world, even if the strategic environment produces uncertainties of its own.”

While both the U.S. and Europe have been increasingly focused on competition with Asia, the ongoing war in Europe means “the potential costs of a shift away from European security on the American side are very much higher today than they might have been a few years ago,” Lesser said. Europe’s ability to deal with that depends on how quickly it happens, he said.

Europe’s lagging defense spending irked U.S. administrations of both parties for years, though NATO members including Germany raised their game after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. NATO forecasts that 23 of the 32 allies will meet its target of spending 2% or more of gross domestic product on defense this year, compared to only three a decade ago.

During his 2017-21 term, Trump threatened to abandon ” delinquent ” countries if they weren’t paying their “bills.” In campaigning this time, he suggested that Russia could do what it wants with them.

His bluster has undermined trust and worried countries nearest to an increasingly unpredictable Russia, like Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland.

Europeans see the war in Ukraine as an existential challenge in a way the United States eventually may not, even with some signs of war fatigue emerging in Europe itself.

If Trump wins, “there’s every indication that he has no interest in continuing to support Ukraine in this war” and will push quickly for some kind of cease-fire or peace agreement deal that Kyiv may not like and Europe may not be ready for, Tausendfreund said. “And there is also just no way that Europe can fill the military gap left if the U.S. were to withdraw support.”

“Even with a Harris administration there is a growing, changing debate — frankly, on both sides of the Atlantic — about what comes next in the war in Ukraine, what is the end game,” Lesser said.

Biden emphasized the need to stay the course in Ukraine during a brief recent visit to Berlin when he conferred with German, French and British leaders.

“We cannot let up. We must sustain our support,” Biden said. “In my view, we must keep going until Ukraine wins a just and durable peace.”

The times he has lived through have taught him that “we should never underestimate the power of democracy, never underestimate the value of alliances,” the 81-year-old Biden added.

German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who bestowed Germany’s highest honor on Biden for his service to trans-Atlantic relations, hopes Biden’s compatriots are listening.

“In the months to come, I hope that Europeans remember: America is indispensable for us,” he said. “And I also hope that Americans remember: Your allies are indispensable for you. We are more than just ‘other countries’ in the world —we are partners, we are friends.”

Whoever wins the White House, the coming years could be bumpy.

“Whatever the outcome next week, half of the country will go away angry,” Lesser said, noting there’s “every prospect” of divided government in Washington. “Europe is going to face a very chaotic and sometimes dysfunctional America.” 
…

Naturalized citizens to play a bigger role in 2024 election

Naturalized immigrants will make up 1/10th of all Americans eligible to vote in 2024. What impact might they have on the election?
…

Americans are anxious and frustrated about the presidential campaign, an AP-NORC poll finds

WASHINGTON — Most Americans are feeling a lot of emotions heading into Election Day, but excitement is not one of them.

A new poll from The AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research finds that about 7 in 10 Americans report feeling anxious or frustrated about the 2024 presidential campaign, and a similar share say they’re interested.

Only about one-third say they feel excited.

There’s a broad feeling of uncertainty hanging over the 2024 presidential contest during the last week of the campaign. The race is competitive nationally and in key swing states, according to recent polls, with neither Democrat Kamala Harris nor Republican Donald Trump showing a measurable advantage.

At the same time, the candidates have offered closing arguments that are in stark contrast with each other, with Harris arguing that Trump is obsessed with revenge and his own personal needs, while Trump referred to Harris at a rally on Sunday night as “a trainwreck who has destroyed everything in her path.”

Some groups are even more anxious than they were four years ago, even though that election took place in the midst of a deadly pandemic.

In 2020, an AP-NORC poll found that about two-thirds of Americans were anxious about the election, which is not statistically significant from the new result. But for partisans, anxiety is dialed a little higher.

About 8 in 10 Democrats say anxious describes how they are feeling now, up slightly from around three-quarters in the last election. About two-thirds of Republicans are anxious, a moderate uptick from around 6 in 10 in 2020.

Independents, by contrast, haven’t shifted meaningfully, and they’re also feeling less worried than Democrats or Republicans. About half say they are anxious, similar to the finding in 2020.

Other emotions have gotten more intense compared to past election cycles, including excitement. About one-third of Americans report feeling excited about the 2024 campaign, up from around one-quarter in 2016. But a majority of Americans say they are not excited about this year’s race.

One thing has stayed fairly constant, though: Americans’ level of frustration with the campaign. Roughly 7 in 10 Americans say frustrated describes their emotional state, similar to 2020.

For those Americans, though, there is light on the horizon — soon, the election will be over.

The poll of 1,233 adults was conducted Oct. 24-29, 2024, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
…

How autoworkers, Arab Americans and Black voters could swing 2024 race

Michigan is considered one of seven key swing states that will likely decide the outcome of the 2024 presidential race. Although President Joe Biden won Michigan for Democrats in 2020, several factors have made a repeat Democratic victory there anything but certain.
…

Economic sentiment improves ahead of US elections 

With the November presidential election less than a week away, some evidence has emerged that U.S. consumers, who have harbored negative sentiments about the state of the economy since the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, are beginning to appreciate its surprisingly robust performance over the past year or more.

On Tuesday, the widely watched U.S. Consumer Confidence Index, an indicator that is correlated with economic growth, rose from 99.2 in September to 108.7 in October, the largest upward jump in more than three years. The Conference Board, which releases the index, also said its index tracking expectations about future economic conditions increased by 6.3 points, to 89.1.

The data suggest that months of good economic news may be starting to break through to U.S. consumers, who are still reeling from the abnormally high inflation that sent prices of goods of all sorts soaring in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2022 and early 2023.

That could also be good news for Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee. She and President Joe Biden have, so far, struggled to convince Americans that the economy really has recovered.

At the same time, former President Donald Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, rarely misses an opportunity to remind voters of the inflation that marked the first half of the Biden administration and the damage it did to household budgets.

Other economic indicators

On Wednesday, the Commerce Department reported that the U.S. gross domestic product grew at an annualized rate of 2.8% in the third quarter of this year. The figure was below expectations but still indicated an economy that was larger than pre-pandemic trends suggested it would be, and that it was also growing at a faster rate.

Inflation, which has played a major role in driving down consumer sentiment, is now sitting at an annualized rate of 2.4%, just four-tenths of a percentage point above the Federal Reserve’s target rate and down from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022.

Meanwhile, the real wages of American workers, defined as the purchasing power of the money they earn, have been steadily growing. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta says growth in average wages has been rising faster than the rate of inflation since early 2023. And according to the Treasury Department, the average household’s purchasing power is now higher than it was before the pandemic, even accounting for inflation.

Slow change in perceptions

“If you look at the economy from an aggregate level — at economic data and other metrics — the economy is in solid shape,” Greg McBride, chief financial analyst for Bankrate.com, told VOA. “We’re seeing growth at a higher-than-expected pace, yet inflation is coming down, and the job market continues to be very robust despite high interest rates.”

However, McBride said, it has taken time for good economic news to color the way consumers think about the economy.

“The reality that households are contending with is the fact that prices are a lot higher than they were a few years ago,” McBride continued. “And whether you’re walking the aisles of the supermarket or paying your monthly rent or insurance premiums, you have near-daily reminders of how much more stuff costs now than it used to.

“And that reality, that struggle, is very real, and that’s what has impacted how consumers feel about the economy — their personal economy.”

Perceptions lag reality

“Perceptions of the economy tend to lag the actual performance of the economy,” said Cullen Hendrix, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

“We’re now in our 16th straight month of wages growing faster than inflation,” Hendrix told VOA. “This has been going on now for a year and a third, which is potentially enough time for consumer sentiment to start to catch up with the actual and incredibly strong performance of the U.S. economy in the post-pandemic period.”

Hendrix said U.S. consumers might be even more bullish about the economy if they stopped to compare the country’s post-COVID-19 economic trajectory with that of other countries.

“If you’ve looked at any of the comparative data, you’ll know that the post-COVID rebound in the United States has been much, much stronger than the post-COVID rebounds in East Asia or in Germany, France, the U.K. or any of the other major economies,” he said.

Declining interest rates

Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at NerdWallet, told VOA that when it comes to consumer sentiment, the passage of time can be a major factor, as can the knowledge that the Federal Reserve has begun lowering interest rates, which were raised sharply to combat inflation.

“The further we get away from the high inflation period, the more likely consumer sentiment is going to come into better alignment with what the economy is actually doing,” she said.

“And now that we have the Fed’s first rate cut in hand, and probably another one coming next week, people know that there is hope on the horizon for lower interest rates, whether they’re interested in getting a mortgage or a car,” she said. “I do think knowing that those lower rates are coming is also going to have a positive impact on sentiment.”

Political reaction

On the campaign trail, Harris has not yet begun to speak as though Americans have adopted a more positive view of the economy. In recent appearances, including an address in Washington on Tuesday night, she has been careful to acknowledge that the wounds of inflation are still healing, and has listed ways she would address economic pain points, such as high grocery and housing costs.

However, in a White House briefing on Wednesday, Jared Bernstein, chair of the U.S. Council of Economic Advisers, said, “I think that upward trend in consumer confidence in sentiment — while not where we want it to be, our work is not done — is telling us that easing inflation, strong growth, a solid job market, and real wage and income gains are helping … American households.”

By contrast, Trump continues to hammer home his own narrative about the state of the U.S. economy.

“If Kamala Harris gets four more years, our economy can never recover,” he said during a rally in New York City on Sunday. “If I win, we will quickly build the greatest economy in the history of the world, which is what we had in our last term. We will rapidly defeat inflation, and we will very simply make America affordable again.”
…

Rival campaign merchandise sellers try lowering political temperature

In the U.S. presidential campaign, there is little to agree on between supporters of Kamala Harris and supporters of Donald Trump. From California, Genia Dulot brings us the story of two people selling rival campaign merchandise who are trying to lower the political temperature of their customers.
…

Harris, Trump head to political battleground states

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump headed to political battleground states on Wednesday in search of any edge they could find six days before the presidential election that may be the closest in decades.

Harris, the Democratic candidate, and Trump, her Republican challenger, both appeared in the mid-Atlantic state of North Carolina before heading to the Upper Midwest state of Wisconsin, with Harris also campaigning in another key state, Pennsylvania in the East.

The three states are among seven, along with Michigan in the Midwest, Georgia in the Southeast and Nevada and Arizona in the Southwest, that both candidates consider crucial to their chances of winning next Tuesday’s election.

Polls show the outcome in the election in the seven states and nationally as too close to call. Nearly 57 million people have already voted at polling stations or by mail, and tens of thousands are continuing to cast early ballots, even as a sliver of voters remains undecided.

Retired Green Bay Packers football quarterback Brett Favre, a popular figure in Wisconsin, is scheduled to join Trump at his rally in Green Bay. Downstate, several musicians popular with younger audiences — Mumford & Sons, Gracie Abrams, Remi Wolf and members of the rock band The National — are scheduled to appear with Harris at her rally in the state capital, Madison.

During a campaign rally in Raleigh, North Carolina, Harris repeated her promise to be “a president for all Americans.”

“Unlike Donald Trump, I don’t believe people who disagree with me are the enemy,” the vice president said, echoing themes from the speech she gave Tuesday night near the White House in what her campaign described as the “closing argument” for her campaign.

Trump rallied with supporters in Rocky Mount, North Carolina, pledging to end inflation in consumer prices, while vowing, “I will stop the massive invasion of criminals into our country,” his favored description for migrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico border.

“And I will bring back the American dream,” he said. “Isn’t that nice?”

Tens of thousands of supporters watched Harris on Tuesday night on the Ellipse in Washington, while Trump held a campaign rally in Pennsylvania.

Harris pledged to work to improve people’s lives and said she would show up to work at the White House with a to-do list, while saying Trump is focused only on himself and would begin a new term starting in January with an enemies list.

Her speech was given in the same area where Trump addressed his supporters on Jan. 6, 2021, shortly before a mob stormed the U.S. Capitol to in an attempt to prevent the certification of President Joe Biden’s victory.

“Look, we know who Donald Trump is. He is the person who stood at this very spot nearly four years ago and sent an armed mob to the United States Capitol to overturn the will of the people in a free and fair election,” Harris said.

Polls show the contest in a virtual dead heat.

Before heading to Allentown, Pennsylvania, a city with a Latino-majority population, Trump spoke Tuesday at his oceanside Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida. He described Harris as “grossly incompetent … a total trainwreck.”

On the campaign trail, Harris and Trump have traded frequent insults.

Trump has described Harris as someone with a “low IQ” and said she would be like “a play toy” for other world leaders. “They’re going to walk all over her,” he said.

Some of Trump’s former top aides from his 2017-2021 term in the White House described him as a fascist with the intent to govern in a second term as an authoritarian. Harris said she agreed with the characterization.

Trump returned the taunt to describe Harris the same way.

The importance of the seven battleground states cannot be overstated.

U.S. presidential elections are not decided by the national popular vote but rather through the Electoral College, which turns the election into 50 state-by-state contests, with 48 of the 50 states awarding all their electoral votes to the winner in their states. Nebraska and Maine allocate theirs by both statewide and congressional district vote counts.

The number of electoral votes in each state is based on population, so the biggest states hold the most sway in determining the overall national outcome, with the winner needing 270 of the 538 electoral votes to claim the presidency.

Polls show either Harris or Trump holds substantial or comfortable leads in 43 of the states, enough for each to get to 200 electoral votes or more. Barring an upset in one of those states, that leaves the outcome to the remaining seven battleground states, where both Harris and Trump have staged frequent rallies, all but ignoring the rest of the country for campaign stops.

Polling in the seven states is easily within the margins of statistical error, leaving the outcome in doubt in all seven.
…