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Why AP called Arizona for Trump

WASHINGTON — The Associated Press declared President-elect Donald Trump the winner in Arizona on Saturday night after vote updates in Maricopa and other counties added to his overall lead, putting the state out of reach for Vice President Kamala Harris.

At the time the AP called the race at 9:21 p.m. ET, Trump led Harris, 52.6% to 46.4%, a margin of about 185,000 votes. Harris needed to win about 7 out of every 10 votes of the roughly 443,000 uncounted ballots remaining, a percentage that has steadily grown as additional votes were counted.

Trump has now swept all seven of the hotly contested presidential battlegrounds, winning 312 electoral votes, compared to 226 for Harris. The number needed to clinch the presidency is 270.

In 2020, President Joe Biden carried the state narrowly over Trump, but he won Maricopa County by a margin of 50 percentage points to 48. On Saturday, Trump was leading Harris 52 to 47.

The AP only declares a winner once it can determine that a trailing candidate can’t close the gap and overtake the vote leader.

Here’s a look at how the AP called this race:

Candidates: President: Harris (D) vs. Trump (R) vs. Chase Oliver (Libertarian) vs. Jill Stein (Green).

Winner: Trump.

Poll closing time: 9 p.m. ET Tuesday. Arizona does not release votes until all precincts have reported or one hour after all polls are closed, whichever is first, usually 10 p.m. ET.

About the race: Both Harris and Trump crisscrossed this border state, where immigration is a prominent issue, multiple times before Election Day.

Trump put immigration at the center of his candidacy, promising to deport people without legal documentation while Harris called for pathways to citizenship as well as tighter security at the border.

Independent voters are the largest bloc in the state, followed by Republicans, then Democrats, who have succeeded in winning Senate contests and the governorship since 2018.

Biden became just the second Democrat to win the state in more than 70 years.

Both candidates made a play for vote-rich Maricopa County, which is home to Phoenix, Mesa and Tempe. Trump carried the county by 3 points in 2016, while Biden won with a 2-point margin four years later. Arizona is primarily an early voting state. In 2016, just over three-quarters of the votes were cast early. In 2020, that climbed to nearly 90%.

Why AP called the race: In statewide elections going back a dozen years, Democrats have always carried four counties in both winning and losing campaigns: Apache, Coconino, Pima and Santa Cruz.

Harris had large leads over Trump in all four counties, but she far underperformed Biden’s showing from 2020.

She was trailing Trump in decisive Maricopa County, which Biden won in 2020 and has been a must-win county for statewide Democratic candidates in recent elections.

Although Harris very briefly led in the statewide vote count on election night, Trump has consistently led since then.

The AP’s analysis of Arizona’s voting history and political demographics at the county level showed there was no scenario that would allow Harris to close the gap. The analysis also showed that even if remaining updates showed vote swings in Harris’ favor, they would not be enough to give her the lead. 
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Record 13 women will be governors next year in US

The election of Republican Kelly Ayotte as New Hampshire’s governor means 13 women will serve as a state’s chief executive next year, breaking the record of 12 set after the 2022 elections.

Governors hold powerful sway in American politics, shaping state policy and often using the experience and profile gained to launch campaigns for higher offices.

“It matters to have women in those roles to normalize the image of women in political leadership and even more specifically in executive leadership, where they’re the sole leader, not just a member of a team,” said Kelly Dittmar, director of research at the Rutgers Center for American Women and Politics.

Gov. Gretchen Whitmer was floated as a potential Democratic nominee for president after President Joe Biden exited the race. Republican South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem was thought to be in the running for President-elect Donald Trump’s vice presidential post.

Ayotte, a former U.S. senator, defeated the Democratic nominee Joyce Craig, a former mayor of Manchester, New Hampshire’s largest city.

Still, 18 states have never had a woman in the governor’s office.

“This is another side of political leadership where women continue to be underrepresented,” Dittmar said. “Thirteen out of 50 is still underrepresentation.”

With two women vying for governor in New Hampshire, a new record for female governors was inevitable. The state has a long history of electing women. As a senator, Ayotte was part of the nation’s first all-female congressional delegation. It was also the first state to have a female governor, state Senate president and House speaker at the same time, and the first to have a female majority in its Senate. Ayotte will be the state’s third woman to be governor.

“Being a woman isn’t really that critical to her political persona,” Linda Fowler, professor emerita of government at Dartmouth College, said of Ayotte.

Both Ayotte and Craig said their gender hasn’t come up on the campaign trail although reproductive rights often took front and center.

In her campaign, Craig attacked Ayotte’s record on abortion, and both candidates released TV ads detailing their own miscarriages. Ayotte said she will veto any bill further restricting abortion in New Hampshire where it is illegal after 24 weeks of pregnancy.

When Ayotte is sworn in, five Republican women will serve as governor at the same time, another new high. The other eight are Democrats.

New Hampshire’s was one of the few competitive gubernatorial races among the 11 this year. More inroads or setbacks for women’s representation could come in 2026 when 36 states will elect governors.Most voters tend to cast their ballots based on party loyalty and ideology rather than gender, Dittmar said. However, she noted female candidates often face layers of scrutiny that male counterparts largely avoid, with voters judging such things as a woman’s intelligence, appearance and even dating history with a sharper lens.

The small gain for women in governor’s offices comes as Vice President Kamala Harris failed in her effort to become the first female president.

“I would not suggest to you that Kamala Harris lost a race because she was a woman, because she was a Black and South Asian woman,” Dittmar said. “We would also fail to tell the correct story if we didn’t acknowledge the ways in which both gender and race shapes the campaign overall, and also had a direct effect on how Kamala Harris was evaluated by voters, treated by her opponents and even in the media and other spaces.”

Executive roles, especially the presidency with its associations like commander in chief, often carry masculine stereotypes that women must work harder to overcome, Dittmar said.

Experts say women confront these perceptions more acutely in executive races, such as for governor and president, than in state legislatures, where women are making historic strides as leaders, filling roles such as speaker and committee chairs.

“Sexism, racism, misogyny, it’s never the silver bullet. It’s never why one voter acts one way or another,” said Erin Vilardi, CEO of Vote Run Lead, a left-leaning group that supports women running for state legislatures. “But we have so much of that built in to how we see a leader.”
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Lithuanian defense minister proposes ways for smoother relations between Europe, Trump

PRAGUE — European nations should not repeat the mistake of creating a barrier between them and President-elect Donald Trump but instead cooperate on issues of common interest, Lithuania’s defense minister said Saturday.

Assuming that Trump will again apply what Laurynas Kasciunas called “his contract approach to our relations,” Kasciunas outlined areas where Europe and the new president could join forces: more investment in defense, European acquisition of American weapons and cooperation on containing China and Iran.

“What we did a little bit wrong last time when he was elected [by defeating] Hillary Clinton, and it was unexpected, we built against him a moral wall,” Kasciunas told The Associated Press.

“I think it was not a correct way,” Kasciunas said. He was speaking on the sidelines of a three-day gathering in Prague focusing on European and transatlantic military capabilities.

During his first term, from 2017 to 2021, Trump pushed NATO’s European members to spend more on defense, up to and beyond 2% of gross domestic product, and to be less reliant on U.S. military.

That’s what the allies have been doing. A total of 23 members are expected to meet the 2% target this year, compared with three 10 years ago, according to NATO. Lithuania has already surpassed 2.5% with a goal of reaching 4%, which would be more than the United States.

Europe’s defense industry managed to increase output of some products after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, but European countries also donated their own weapons to Ukraine and “remain dependent on the U.S. for some important aspects of their military capability,” a report published by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies at the Prague event said.

Lithuania, which borders Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave to the west and Belarus to the east, remains the largest buyer of U.S. arms among the three Baltic states.

The minister, whose country was in a spat with China over Taiwan, also spoke in favor of European Union sanctions on Iran.

However, Russia’s war against Ukraine has been divisive.

Trump has repeatedly taken issue with U.S. aid to Ukraine, made vague vows to end the war and has praised Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Kasciunas insisted that Europe’s military aid to Ukraine must continue and that Russia should not dictate the conditions for peace, while a limited cease-fire would not make sense because it would only help Russian troops recover from losses and strike again.

“We need a just peace, credible peace,” he said.

During his election campaign, Trump also threatened actions that could have groundbreaking consequences for nations across Europe, from a trade war with the EU to a withdrawal of NATO commitments.
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Biden, Trump will meet in Oval Office Wednesday, White House says

WASHINGTON — U.S. President Joe Biden will meet with President-elect Donald Trump at the White House on Wednesday after Biden pledged an orderly transfer of power following the Republican’s decisive election victory.    

Biden and Trump will meet at the Oval Office at 11:00 a.m., the White House said Saturday, with the clock ticking down to the ex-president’s return to power in January. 

Trump sealed a historic comeback to the White House in the November 5 election, cementing what is set to be more than a decade of U.S. politics overshadowed by his often divisive politics. 

The 78-year-old won wider margins than before, despite a criminal conviction and two impeachments while in office. 

Exit polls showed that voters’ top concern remained the economy and inflation that spiked under Biden in the wake of the COVID pandemic. 

Biden, who dropped out of the race in July over concerns about his ability to continue at the age of 81, called Trump to congratulate him after his election win.
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After election, Kenya-born legislator heads to Minnesota capitol

MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA — Huldah Momanyi Hiltsley made history November 5 by becoming the first Kenyan-born immigrant elected to the Minnesota House of Representatives. She describes her victory as a testament to resilience, determination and the realization of the American dream.

Standing in the State Capitol for the first time on the morning of her orientation, Hiltsley told VOA she was overwhelmed with emotions and eager to start her journey as an elected official.

“I am super excited,” Hiltsley said. “Today is orientation day for new legislators, and to be standing in this Capitol as an African immigrant woman is a tremendous honor. I’m just overexcited right now.”

She said this milestone did not come easily. Her path to the Minnesota State Capitol was marked by struggles, including a fight against an immigration system that nearly led to her family’s deportation. She credits much of her success to the community support and the intervention of the late U.S. Senator Paul Wellstone, whose advocacy she said ultimately secured her family’s green cards and, later, citizenship.

“Getting to this moment honestly is just a testament to the struggles that my family has gone through to be in this country,” she said.

There has been a media frenzy surrounding Hiltsley’s victory and it has captured the attention of Kenyan media, with celebrations taking place in her hometown, Nyamemiso village, which is eight hours from Nairobi, Kenya’s capital. Despite the attention, Hiltsley said she remains humble. 

“I’m that little girl from that little village somewhere in the middle of Kenya, and now I’m in the spotlight of this media frenzy. And so, I’m still trying to really appreciate the magnitude of the moment,” she said.

Hiltsley said she has a desire to inspire others, particularly young girls in Kenya and the United States.

“It is still surreal,” she said, adding that “if I can make it to this point, I can be a role model to somebody to remind them that it is possible that our wildest dreams are possible. And that would be something that I would look back and say, wow, I’ve made a difference in somebody’s life.”

Her legislative priorities

Looking ahead, Hiltsley said she is committed to championing issues that matter to her constituents in Minnesota’s Legislative District 38A. Her priorities include community-centered public safety policies, affordable housing options, workers’ rights and support for small businesses — many of which are run by African immigrants.

“The resources are out here,” she said, promising to empower her community.

“It is my job to go back to my community and tell them, hey, there are resources here. This is how this system works. Let’s work together to mobilize and make sure that we are also taking a piece of the pie,” she said.

As the first Kenyan American woman in Minnesota’s Legislature, Hiltsley said she recognizes the weight and responsibility of her position.

She described it as “an honor that I don’t take lightly.”

“I don’t want to be the last,” she, adding that she hopes “this moment right here is a testimony that you can come to this country, work hard, take care of business, know your craft, stick to it, be consistent and get to where you want to.”

Her message to those who have yet to succeed in their political campaigns is clear: Perseverance is key.

“Be consistent. Keep going. There’s enough space in this Legislature for more people of color, especially immigrants, because that’s the voice that is missing,” Hiltsley said.

Changing political scene

Hiltsley shared her thoughts on the changing political landscape in Washington, particularly with the coming administration under President-elect Donald Trump. While acknowledging the challenges, she said she will stay focused on serving her constituents in Minnesota, regardless of politics.

“We are here to serve the people, and it doesn’t matter if you are Democrat or Republican,” she said. “We are here as legislators to serve the people of Minnesota.”

Hiltsley also shared her heartfelt message to fellow Kenyans who have been celebrating her historic achievement.

“This is a historical moment, and I’m honored to be a Kenyan American,” she said. “Let’s continue celebrating this victory, but after that, we have work to do.”

She said her eyes are set on not just her role in Minnesota, but also finding ways to collaborate with Kenya’s leaders to address issues facing the country, including corruption and a lack of strong leadership.

“Kenya has unlimited potential,” she said. “It’s up to our leaders to do right by the people.”

Hiltsley will officially take her seat in the Minnesota State House of Representatives and be sworn in on January 7. Representatives are elected to serve two-year terms.

This story originated in VOA’s Swahili Service. Salem Solomon contributed to the report from Washington.
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Iran urges Trump to change ‘maximum pressure’ policy

TEHRAN, IRAN — Iran signaled an openness toward Donald Trump Saturday, calling on the president-elect to adopt new policies toward it after Washington accused Tehran of involvement in a plot to kill him.

Vice President for Strategic Affairs Mohammad Javad Zarif urged Trump to reassess the policy of “maximum pressure” he employed against the Islamic republic during his first term.

“Trump must show that he is not following the wrong policies of the past,” Zarif told reporters.

His remarks came after the United States accused Iran of conspiring to assassinate Trump.

The Foreign Ministry described the American accusations Saturday as “totally unfounded.”

Tehran and Washington severed diplomatic relations shortly after the Islamic revolution in 1979.

2015 nuclear power accord

Zarif, a veteran diplomat who previously served as foreign minister, helped to seal the 2015 nuclear accord between Iran and Western powers, including the United States.

However, the deal was torpedoed in 2018 after the United States unilaterally withdrew from the deal under Trump, who later reimposed sanctions on Tehran.

In response, Iran rolled back its obligations under the deal and has since enriched uranium up to 60%, just 30 percentage points lower than nuclear-grade uranium.

Tehran has repeatedly denied Western accusations that it seeks to develop a nuclear weapon.

Zarif said Saturday that it was Trump’s political approach toward Iran that led to the surge in enrichment levels.

“He must have realized that the maximum pressure policy that he initiated caused Iran’s enrichment to reach 60% from 3.5% and increased its centrifuges,” he said.

Provocations

“As a man of calculation, he should do the math and see what the advantages and disadvantages of this policy have been and whether he wants to continue or change this harmful policy,” Zarif said.

In December 2017, Trump recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and the following year moved the American embassy there.

Trump also recognized Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, which Israel captured from Syria in 1967 and later annexed.

During his first term, Trump also ordered the killing of revered Iranian military commander Qasem Soleimani, who led the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps foreign operations arm, the Quds Force.

Soleimani was killed in a drone strike while he was in the Iraqi capital, Baghdad, in January 2020.

The Islamic Republic has not recognized its archnemesis Israel since the U.S.-backed shah was toppled in 1979.

On Thursday, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said he hoped the president-elect’s return to power would allow Washington to “revise the wrong approaches of the past,” although he avoided mentioning Trump by name.

On Tuesday, election day in the United States, Trump told reporters he was “not looking to do damage to Iran.”

“My terms are very easy. They can’t have a nuclear weapon. I’d like them to be a very successful country,” he said after casting his ballot.

Iran insists that it uses nuclear technology for safe and civilian purposes.

Trump’s election victory came after Iran and Israel attacked each other directly, raising fears of a further regional spillover of the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon.
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Who is Trump’s new chief of staff? Susie Wiles will be 1st woman to hold post

With her appointment as chief of staff to President-elect Donald Trump, Susie Wiles moves from a largely behind-the-scenes role of campaign co-chair to one of the most prominent positions in a new White House administration.

The 67-year-old will become the first woman to serve in the post for any U.S. president when she assumes the role as the president’s closest adviser in January.

In announcing his decision Thursday, Trump said Wiles is “tough, smart, innovative, and is universally admired and respected.” It was his first appointment since winning Tuesday’s election against Vice President Kamala Harris.

“It is a well deserved honor to have Susie as the first-ever female Chief of Staff in United States history. I have no doubt that she will make our country proud,” Trump said in his statement.

Wiles largely avoided the spotlight during her time as co-chair of Trump’s successful election campaign and was credited — along with co-campaign manager Chris LaCivita — with bringing some discipline to Trump’s free-wheeling, off-script campaign style.

She didn’t speak during Trump’s victory celebration early Wednesday morning when he called her to the podium, and she refused to take the microphone.

Wiles rarely gives televised interviews and tends to avoid the spotlight, a contrast with LaCivita, who is known for being outspoken.

For someone of her stature, she is not well-known in political circles. During his victory speech, Trump referred to Wiles as the “ice maiden.”

She is one of Trump’s most trusted advisers. During a rally in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, earlier this month, he said: “She’s incredible. Incredible.”

Top Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio told Politico in April, “There is nobody, I think, that has the wealth of information that she does. Nobody in our orbit. Nobody.”

While Wiles is a somewhat enigmatic figure, she has a long career of working behind the scenes in U.S. politics.

Shortly after she graduated from the University of Maryland in 1979, she went to work for New York Congressman Jack Kemp and joined Ronald Reagan’s presidential campaign in 1980.

She eventually moved to Florida where she advised the campaigns of two Florida mayors and helped then-businessman Rick Scott transition to politics in his successful 2010 campaign for governor.

She managed Utah Governor Jon Huntsman Jr.’s presidential bid in 2012, and managed Florida for Trump’s 2016 campaign. She joined Ron DeSantis’ race for governor in 2018, but she parted ways with him after a falling out in 2019.

Wiles made a rare appearance on social media shortly before DeSantis dropped out of the presidential race in January. “Bye, bye,” she wrote.

She went on to run Trump’s primary campaign against DeSantis, which Trump easily won.

Wiles is the only campaign manager to survive an entire Trump campaign and is known for her ability to tamp down his mercurial, sometimes volatile behavior.

In one anecdote reported by The Associated Press, during a campaign speech in Pennsylvania when Trump strayed off his talking points and quipped about not minding if members of the media were shot, she came out and silently stared at him until he got back on track.

That ability should serve her well in her new role. In his last four years in office, Trump went through four chiefs of staff, a record for modern presidents.

Some information in this report was provided by The Associated Press.
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India optimistic about Trump presidency, worried about trade, tariffs

NEW DELHI — As India looks ahead to President-elect Donald Trump taking charge in Washington, there is optimism the strategic relationship built by the two countries in recent years will strengthen. India also hopes to benefit if Trump takes a less confrontational approach to Russia, say analysts.

New Delhi also is bracing for turbulence in trade ties, though, which could be affected by Trump’s “America first” agenda.

In his congratulatory message posted on social media platform X, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi called Trump “my friend” and said, “I look forward to renewing our collaboration to further strengthen the India-U.S. Comprehensive Global and Strategic Partnership.”

Modi shared photos of the two leaders hugging and Trump’s visit to India during his first term in 2020 — a time when Trump shared warm relations with Modi.

Analysts in New Delhi expect that India will remain a key partner for Washington.

“Compared to most other countries, particularly some of the USA’s closest partners, perhaps India is better placed because of its centrality in the Indo-Pacific and the role it plays in counterbalancing China,” said Harsh Pant, vice president for studies and foreign policy at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi.

“Given that Trump had invested in this partnership in his earlier term, there is hope it will continue the same trajectory,” he said.

The Quad group — a partnership among the United States, Japan, Australia and India, which had been dormant earlier — was revived under the previous Trump administration with an eye on China.

However, a sense of uncertainty lingers in the corridors of power in New Delhi. “The relationship may face hiccups, which we cannot anticipate at the moment given Trump’s leadership style and unpredictability,” said Pant.

India also hopes that confrontation between the U.S. and Russia will lessen under the Trump administration. During the campaign, Trump had said he would end the Russia-Ukraine war without elaborating. In the past he has spoken of having a good relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“If U.S. hostility to Russia lessens under Trump, we believe that it would reduce the extreme and overwhelming Russian dependence on China, which is good from India’s perspective,” according to Sreeram Chaulia, dean at the Jindal School of International Affairs at O.P. Jindal Global University.

Despite a recent thaw in ties with China, India remains wary of Beijing.

Others point out that maintaining India’s time-tested ties with Russia could become easier under a Trump presidency. India refused to join Western sanctions against Russia or condemn the war in Ukraine, positions that became an irritant in Washington.

“Trump appears to have a less strident approach to Russia, and that will help India by making it simpler to balance relations between Washington and Russia,” said Anand Kumar, associate fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses in New Delhi.

“Tariff king”

While security ties will likely stay on track, there are worries over whether trade relations will take a hit under Trump, who has said he will follow an “America first” agenda and impose tariffs on countries that have trade surpluses with Washington.

The U.S. is India’s largest trading partner — two-way trade last year totaled almost $120 billion, with a surplus of $30 billion in India’s favor.

During his previous term, Trump called India a “tariff king,” criticized high duties that New Delhi imposed on American products such as Harley-Davidson motorcycles, and terminated India’s designation as a developing nation that had allowed businesses to export hundreds of products duty-free to the United States. India retaliated by raising duties on some American products.

Such tensions could be exacerbated because Trump is likely to push New Delhi to lower import duties for American companies. “This will be a slippery slope for India; he could demand market concessions,” said Chaulia.

Indian officials, however, have sounded an optimistic note.

“There was already a reordering of the supply chains taking place. It is very likely that in view of the [U.S.] election results, this would accelerate. Some of it will be disruptive, but we in India see it as an opportunity,” Indian Foreign Minister Jaishankar Subrahmanyan told business leaders in Australia on Thursday.

He was referring to the trend of companies such as Apple setting up manufacturing bases in India as they looked to diversify production from China.

But analysts say Trump could take a diametrically different approach.

“He has this philosophy of onshoring, that is bringing manufacturing back to the U.S. rather than friendshoring which Biden used to talk about — that is encouraging businesses to move to friendly countries. So, the overall idea that U.S. businesses that are leaving China would think of India as an alternative — that model Trump may not encourage,” said Chaulia.

Defense and technology

There also are questions about how the defense and technology cooperation between India and the U.S. that gained momentum under the Biden administration will move forward. India has pushed for co-production of defense technology rather than relying solely on direct purchases of military equipment; sustaining that under Trump may pose a challenge, according to analysts.

“The U.S. has operated under the assumption that boosting India’s capabilities is in America’s self-interest, especially in balancing China. But Trump is likely to demand some Indian ‘pro’ for American ‘quid,’” analyst C. Raja Mohan wrote in the Indian Express newspaper on Thursday.

“India may find itself on a steep learning curve as it figures out there may be no ‘free lunch’ under Trump’s second term,” Mohan wrote.

Still, as India prepares to navigate a Trump presidency, there is an overall sense of confidence.

“I don’t think India is as worried as some other world capitals. New Delhi understands that if Trump’s obsession with China continues, that gives India greater space to maneuver,” said Pant.
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Trump agenda to strengthen American might and prosperity offers few details

Donald Trump’s agenda calls for him to deliver on key campaign talking points: improving border security, strengthening the economy and putting America first. While his promises are bold, details on how they’ll be carried out are few. Tina Trinh reports.
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How Trump won 

washington — Political polls leading up to this week’s U.S. presidential election showed a tight race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. But Trump pulled off a resounding win across several demographic groups, securing critical battleground states that often determine the outcome of U.S. presidential contests.

Trump held on to his base of voters while making gains with several groups that traditionally vote for Democrats, including young Black men, Latino men and young people, according to an analysis by The Associated Press.  

“They came from all corners — union, nonunion, African American, Hispanic American, Asian American, Arab American, Muslim American,” Trump said after declaring victory early Wednesday. “We had everybody.”

Trump, who was convicted on 34 felony charges for falsifying business records in May, is now poised to become the first Republican presidential candidate in 20 years to win the popular vote. In addition, in May 2023, a federal jury found Trump liable for sexually abusing former columnist E. Jean Carroll and subsequently defaming her.

“It is interesting, over the course of recent political history, why certain things land, certain things don’t,” said Samuel Abrams, a professor of politics and social science at Sarah Lawrence College in New York.

“Why some candidates are Teflon-covered and others are not. Why Donald Trump’s record, for instance, of infidelity and problems with some of the criminal stuff has not stuck to him.”

What has stuck is Trump’s messaging and his ability to successfully tap into the concerns of many Americans across numerous demographics.

“And that is, ‘I hear you. I understand your struggle. I understand that things are not as good as they could be, and I’d like to help you out. I’d like to make it easier. I’m interested in helping you put more money in your wallet or pocketbook,’ ” Abrams said.

“The press and the media like to talk about some of the crazy things he said and all of that, but at the end of the day, it’s been a very strong America First message and a message of, again, ‘I know what you need, and I’m here to help you.’ ”

Trump’s campaign targeted key audiences, often through podcasts and social media. His appearance on the “Joe Rogan Experience” podcast has drawn almost 47 million views on YouTube.

“They targeted young men. They targeted those that didn’t vote. They targeted those individuals that, you know, have struggled under the last several years of inflation, and that’s paid off,” said Thom Reilly, a professor at the School of Public Affairs at Arizona State University.

Harris had about 100 days to run her campaign after President Joe Biden withdrew from the race in July — a rush toward Election Day that may have hurt her chances.

“I think the real challenge that the Harris campaign had was that she had a very compressed period of time in order to run her campaign,” Reilly said, “and she really struggled with, one, distancing herself from Biden, particularly around his economic policy, but also with developing a convincing summary of her agenda dealing on critical issues like immigration and like the economy.”

Harris’ inability to distance herself from an unpopular president may have hurt her chances. “It was clear that the American public wanted change,” Reilly said, “and for many individuals, they saw this as a continuation, for good or bad, of the Biden administration.”

Harris also didn’t have to compete in any primaries in 2024, because Biden withdrew after the primary season ended. Primaries are statewide contests in which voters select candidates for the general election.

“I think it was an enormous mistake to have not put her through that test of fire,” Abrams said, “because the whole point is to expose weakness and see if they can do it.”

Other analysts have said Harris focused too much on abortion rights and too little on the economy.

“Clearly, that was a driving and polarizing issue that impacted a lot of voters. But when you step back at the end of the day, far less than 1% of American voters are ever going to have to deal with abortion directly or indirectly,” said Republican strategist Jason Cabel Roe. “All voters have to deal with inflation, gas prices, home energy prices, less take-home pay.”

It’s difficult to know how much, if at all, being a woman of color hurt Harris. Thirty percent of people polled by Pew Research before the election said that Harris’ gender would be a liability at the polls.

“I don’t think, quite frankly, that this really had to do with race and ethnicity or gender at all this time around,” Abrams said. “The messaging that Trump had really resonated just much more deeply than Harris for so many of these voters around the country.” 
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Long list of potential Cabinet appointees awaits Trump team’s vetting 

When the ballots were counted and the presidential race was called for Donald Trump early Wednesday morning, another race immediately began: the 11-week sprint to staff a new administration that will need to be ready to take over the management of the country on January 20.

A president’s administration includes thousands of appointees, but in the first weeks after the election, the focus will be identifying the people who will make up the president’s Cabinet.

The Cabinet traditionally includes the vice president and the leaders of the 15 departments of the executive branch, such as the State and Treasury departments. It also includes about 10 officials serving in Cabinet-level positions, such as the U.S. trade representative, the director of national intelligence and the White House chief of staff. Except for the vice president and the chief of staff, all Cabinet-level appointees require Senate confirmation.

On Thursday evening, Trump said Susie Wiles, a longtime Republican operative who was one of the two main managers of his successful campaign, would be his White House chief of staff. She will be the first woman to hold that position.

A mix of backgrounds

Beyond naming Wiles, Trump has offered few specifics about whom he wants to fill key roles in his second administration.

Many who served in Cabinet and sub-Cabinet posts in his first administration have since broken with the president-elect. Some even went so far as to endorse his opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris. However, a sizable number of former Trump appointees have maintained good relations with him, and they may reappear in significant roles in the next administration.

Beyond that, those he might tap for key positions include current and former members of Congress as well as major figures from the business world who supported his campaign, such as SpaceX founder Elon Musk.

Transition team

Presidential candidates typically set up transition teams well before the end of the election to get a head start on the process.

Jo-Anne Sears, a nonresident fellow at the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress, served on transition teams for former President George W. Bush and 2012 Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney. She told VOA that she has been in touch with Trump transition team members and expects them to cast a wide net when considering potential appointees.

“I’m hearing from folks within the transition that they really want to bring the best and brightest to Washington, D.C.,” Sears said. “And that means they’ll come from all different parts of the country — it won’t just be New York or D.C.

“I think he’s going to try to bring people in who are true experts in their fields, whether that’s national security, homeland security, or in technological solutions to streamline government, which I think is going to be one of his goals,” Sears said.

Former Trump Cabinet appointees 

Some of the most obvious choices for senior positions in Trump’s second administration are the individuals who held senior, Senate-confirmed positions in the first.

Robert Lighthizer served as U.S. trade representative for most of Trump’s first term. He may reappear in the new administration in a more senior role, such as treasury secretary.

Mike Pompeo, who served as CIA director and secretary of state at separate times in the first Trump administration, could return to one of those roles or take up the mantle of secretary of defense.

John Ratcliffe served as Trump’s director of national intelligence during the last year of his first term. He could appear in any of several roles, from a senior intelligence post to the office of the attorney general.

Linda McMahon, the former CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment, a professional wrestling promoter, served as head of the Small Business Administration in Trump’s first term. Currently one of the leaders of Trump’s transition team, she is said to be under consideration for commerce secretary.

Potential sub-Cabinet-level returnees

Several potential appointees have served in senior sub-Cabinet roles or in Trump’s Cabinet on an acting basis.

Richard Grenell, who served as Trump’s ambassador to Germany and then briefly in 2020 as acting director of national intelligence, is believed to be in the running for secretary of state. Grenell is famously combative, however, and could struggle in the Senate confirmation process. He might also be a candidate for national security adviser, which is not a Cabinet-level position and does not require Senate confirmation.

Robert O’Brien, Trump’s former national security adviser who also served as an envoy for hostage affairs, might also assume a top job in the new administration, potentially as secretary of state.

Stephen Miller, who served first as director of speechwriting and then as a senior adviser to Trump throughout his first administration, may also return to the White House. However, like Grenell, Miller might face long odds in a confirmation hearing. What position Miller might hold is unclear, but his past focus on illegal immigration suggests a role in the Department of Homeland Security or a job related to border policy.

Larry Kudlow, the financial news commentator who served as director of the National Economic Council during Trump’s first term, is rumored to be a potential candidate for a senior position on Trump’s economic team, possibly treasury secretary.

Keith Kellogg, a former Army lieutenant general who briefly served as acting national security adviser early in Trump’s term and remained in the White House as national security adviser to former Vice President Mike Pence, could take a role on the national security team.

Tom Homan, who served as acting director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement under Trump, could be brought back on board to lead the Department of Homeland Security and help the next president pursue his stated goal of orchestrating mass deportations of noncitizens living in the U.S.

Another possibility for Homeland Security is Chad Wolf, who led the agency for 14 months at the end of Trump’s administration. During his tenure, Wolf reliably carried out Trump’s draconian immigration policies. However, his appointment was later found to have been illegal. Wolf also resigned his position after Trump attempted to overturn the results of the 2020 election.

Jeffrey Clark, a former assistant attorney general who played a key role in pressuring Justice Department officials to help overturn Trump’s loss in the 2020 election, may also return, despite being under indictment in Georgia for attempting to overturn the election in that state. Trump briefly considered appointing Clark acting attorney general in the aftermath of the 2020 election but decided not to after the Justice Department’s senior staff said they would resign en masse.

Kash Patel, who served in several senior staff positions related to the defense and intelligence communities, may also reappear. Patel, a vocal supporter of Trump, vowed at one point that in a second term, the administration would “come after” Trump’s critics.

Jay Clayton, who served as chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission under Trump and has a long history as a business lawyer, is seen as a potential pick for Treasury who would bring confidence to the financial markets.

Brian Hook, who served as director of policy planning and later as U.S. special representative for Iran, has been mentioned as a potential nominee to lead the Department of Defense.

One longshot candidate for a senior position is former Army Lieutenant General Mike Flynn, who served briefly as Trump’s first national security adviser before being forced to resign for lying to the FBI about his contacts with Russian officials. Flynn has remade himself as a pro-Trump conspiracy theorist associated with the QAnon movement, and the former president has expressed some interest in bringing him back into the administration.

Current and former members of Congress

Current and former members of Congress are also potential Trump appointees, including Utah Senator Mike Lee. An attorney and ardent Trump supporter who aided efforts to overturn the 2020 election, Lee is believed to be a leading candidate for attorney general.

Senator Bill Hagerty of Tennessee is believed to be under consideration for various top jobs. He served as Trump’s ambassador to Japan before being elected to the Senate and could fill any of several of trade- and diplomacy-related positions.

Florida Senator Marco Rubio, a Trump critic-turned-avid supporter, was considered as a vice presidential nominee last year. He is now considered a possible candidate for secretary of state.

Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina is one of Trump’s most visible supporters in the African American community and may be in line for a post as secretary of housing and urban development.

Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas, a veteran Army officer and national defense hawk, is said to be under consideration for secretary of defense.

Another possibility for the Pentagon is Mike Waltz, a former Green Beret and National Guard colonel who serves in Congress representing Florida. Waltz is a vocal defender of Trump in the media.

Representative Mark Green of Tennessee, who chairs the House Homeland Security Committee, is seen as a potential pick to run the Department of Homeland Security.

Representative Elise Stefanik of New York has been mentioned as a potential ambassador to the United Nations.

Business leaders

While Musk played a major role in funding Trump’s campaign and has signaled an openness to serving on some sort of commission aimed at making the federal government more efficient, it seems unlikely that he will serve in an official Cabinet position. Musk already serves as CEO of several companies that have billions of dollars’ worth of contracts with the federal government, including the rocket company SpaceX. This creates a web of potential conflicts of interest that would make Senate confirmation difficult.

Several figures from the world of investing and finance are also reported to be in the mix. John Paulson, a billionaire hedge fund manager who has supported Trump since the president-elect’s first campaign in 2016, is reportedly under consideration for treasury secretary.

Also said to be under consideration for treasury secretary is Scott Bessent, a hedge fund manager and adviser to the Trump campaign.

One of the leaders of Trump’s transition team, Howard Lutnick, the CEO of the financial services firm Cantor Fitzgerald, is a possible candidate for an economic policy position.

There have long been rumors that Jamie Dimon, chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, is a potential treasury secretary. However, recent news reports have suggested that he is not interested in the job.

The RFK Jr. factor

During the campaign, onetime independent candidate for president Robert F. Kennedy Jr., nephew of former President John F. Kennedy and son of the former attorney general, threw his support to Trump.

In return, Trump has offered Kennedy a role in shaping public health policy. In a Zoom call with supporters late in the campaign, Kennedy said that Trump had “promised” him control of the Department of Health and Human Services – which includes the Centers for Disease Control, the Food and Drug Administration and the National Institutes of Health – and the Department of Agriculture.

However, there are doubts that Kennedy could survive a Senate confirmation vote for any Cabinet-level position. A former environmental lawyer, he has in recent decades become a prominent vaccine skeptic and conspiracy theorist, and lawmakers might be reluctant to place him in charge of the country’s public health infrastructure.

Campaign figures

Finally, two figures who arose during Trump’s most recent presidential campaign might find their way into the White House in January.

Former Trump primary opponents-turned-supporters Doug Burgum, the former governor of North Dakota, and Vivek Ramaswamy, a businessman, might also be in the mix. 
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Turkish leader sees opportunity in Trump’s election

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is sometimes at odds with Western leaders but has made no secret of what he says were his warm dealings with President-elect Donald Trump during the U.S. leader’s first term. Observers say he is now looking to those warm ties as an opportunity to end regional conflicts, but also to ask for greater U.S. cooperation against Kurdish separatists, as Dorian Jones reports from Istanbul.
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In Africa, some excited about Trump return, others worried

Reactions in Africa to Donald Trump’s return to the White House are mixed. Some are excited and eager to see what comes next, while others remember the former president’s first term and don’t expect much from a new Trump administration regarding Africa. VOA Nairobi Bureau Chief Mariama Diallo has this report. Contributor: Juma Majanga; Camera: Amos Wangwa
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In historic shift, American Muslim and Arab voters desert Democrats

In a historic shift, Muslim and Arab Americans broke with two decades of Democratic loyalty, splitting most of their votes between President-elect Donald Trump and third-party candidates in Tuesday’s presidential election

The exodus, fueled by anger over the Biden administration’s handling of the war in Gaza, helped Trump win key battleground states as he defeated Vice President Kamala Harris in the race for the White House.

Less than half of the Muslim voters who voted backed Harris, according to an exit poll of more than 1,000 voters by the Council on American Islamic Relations. Most voted for either a third-party candidate or Trump, said Robert McCaw, CAIR’s director of government affairs.

“This is the first time in the past in more than 20 years that the Muslim community has been split between three candidates,” McCaw said in an interview, with VOA.

CAIR’s exit poll findings are set for release on Thursday.

The shift in the Muslim vote echoed among Arab American voters, who had backed Democratic presidential candidates 2-to-1 for more than two decades, said James Zogby, president of the Arab American Institute.

“And then you come to this election where Gaza took a toll and caused a great deal of dissatisfaction among demographic groups in the community that I wouldn’t have expected it to have that degree of impact,” Zogby told VOA. “What they saw happening in Gaza impacted them quite profoundly.”

There are an estimated 3.7 million Arab Americans, most of them Christian, and a similar number of Muslim Americans.

The voter revolt was strongest in Michigan’s Arab strongholds of Dearborn, Dearborn Heights, and Hamtramck.

In Dearborn, where more than 55% of the residents are of Middle Eastern descent, Trump won more than 42% of the vote, up from 30% four years ago. Harris received just 36% from a community that gave President Joe Biden nearly 70% of its vote.

In nearby Hamtramck, the first majority-Muslim city in the U.S., Trump picked up 43% of the vote, up from just 13% in 2020. Harris secured 46%, down from the 85% that Biden notched four years ago.

Green Party candidate Jill Stein, a staunch critic of Israel’s war in Gaza, pulled less than 20% of the vote in the two towns.

Samraa Luqman, a Dearborn-based realtor and political activist, said the shift was “absolutely astounding.”

“It’s really, really, wow,” said Luqman, who campaigned for Biden last fall before switching sides over Gaza.

The last time Muslim Americans overwhelmingly voted for a Republican was in 2000 when George W. Bush received the community’s support.

That changed after the attacks of 9/11. In recent years, however, some conservative Muslims started to drift back to the Republican Party over cultural issues.

Anger over Gaza solidified the rightward shift, Luqman said.

“It really put the nail in the coffin for the Democrats for this election,” she said.

Yet some experts urge caution in interpreting Harris’ lackluster performance among Muslim voters. AP VoteCast showed the vice president captured 63% of Muslim votes overall, just slightly below Biden’s 2020 showing, said Youssef Chouhoud, a professor at Christopher Newport University.

“While Dearborn is a unique case, I do think we need to wait and see what the larger trends are for Muslim voters nationwide,” added Saher Selod, director of research at the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding (ISPU).

Still, Trump made noticeable inroads. After winning 35% of the Muslim vote in 2020, he actively courted Muslim and Arab voters this year, promising to end the Gaza conflict. Last week, he visited Hamtramck, whose Muslim mayor had endorsed him.

“His outreach didn’t go unnoticed,” said Asm “Kamal” Rahman, a Bangladeshi American who ran for mayor in 2021, and voted for Trump.

Luqman said Trump’s message of peace resonated with many voters.

“This year, he stated several times, and it became kind of like a model, that he wanted to stop the war, stop the war, stop the war,” Luqman said.

While Gaza was the No. 1 issue among Muslim Americans, kitchen table issues also pushed many away from Harris, according to several activists and voters.

“I want people in office that are going to focus on solving the problems of Americans here at home, first and foremost,” said Nagi Almudhegi, a data analyst in Dearborn.

An ISPU survey over the summer found that the economy was the No. 3 issue for most Muslim voters, after the Gaza conflict and ending foreign wars.

“They’re feeling the pinch as much as anyone else, and so I think that’s a major issue as far as just very specific sort of interests and concerns of the Muslim community,” said Chad Haines, co-director of the Center of Muslim Experience in the U.S. at Arizona State University.

Haines, a Muslim convert who voted for Harris, said the election divided the Muslim American community between those who wanted to send Democrats a message over Gaza, and others who feared a Trump return.

“So … one camp is happy that … the Democrats have taken, in a sense, a hit, and another is deeply concerned about the next four years,” Haines in an interview.
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Trump moving quickly to consider key appointments

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is moving quickly to consider appointments to key positions in his new White House administration and could name some choices within days.

Trump, fresh off his decisive victory over Vice President Kamala Harris in Tuesday’s presidential election, has been huddling with aides at his oceanside Mar-a-Lago retreat in Florida to mull over his options.

Even before the election, transition chiefs Howard Lutnick and Linda McMahon met with some potential candidates for top-notch jobs, either in the White House or to head the government’s Cabinet-level departments and an array of other agencies.

Trump aides also have prepared a long list of possible executive orders and regulation reversals for him to sign on his first day in office on January 20, to end policies that have been adopted by President Joe Biden over the last four years.

Biden, who defeated Trump in the 2020 election and was running for reelection until a disastrous debate performance against Trump in June forced him from the contest, has promised a peaceful transition back to Trump.

Biden has invited the president-elect for a White House visit in the coming days and called him Wednesday to congratulate him. Biden is speaking on the election from the White House Rose Garden on Thursday morning.

Biden on Wednesday praised Harris for her campaign, saying, “She’s been a tremendous partner and public servant full of integrity, courage, and character.”

“Under extraordinary circumstances, she stepped up and led a historic campaign that embodied what’s possible when guided by a strong moral compass and a clear vision for a nation that is more free, more just, and full of more opportunities for all Americans,” Biden said.
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Taiwan braces for uncertainty following Trump’s victory

Taipei, Taiwan — Leaders from China and Taiwan have congratulated Donald Trump’s national election victory, despite growing uncertainty about how his second presidential term might impact dynamics across the Taiwan Strait.

Chinese President Xi Jinping urged China and the United States to find the right way to get along in the new era, to benefit ‘’both countries and the wider world.”

He hopes the two sides will “uphold the principles of mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation, strengthen dialogue and communication, properly manage differences and expand mutually beneficial cooperation,” according to a readout released by China’s official Xinhua News Agency on Thursday.

Meanwhile, Taiwan President Lai Ching-te, who came to power in May, said in a post on social media platform X that he is confident that the “longstanding Taiwan-U.S. partnership, built on shared values and interests, will continue to serve as a cornerstone for regional stability and lead to greater prosperity.” 

On the Chinese internet, some social media users say they expect Trump to impose high tariffs on Chinese products but expressed mixed views on how the looming trade war might affect the Chinese economy. 

In Taiwan, some Taiwanese people express concern about the U.S. reducing their support for Taiwan under Trump’s second term due to his comments about Taiwan during the campaign and his isolationist approach to international affairs. 

“Judging from his comments on Taiwan over the last few months, I worry the U.S. won’t be so supportive of Taiwan if they want to stabilize relations with China,” Lydia Yang, a 35-year-old marketing professional in Taipei, told VOA by phone.

During an interview with Bloomberg Businessweek in July, Trump said Taiwan should pay the U.S. for defense and compared U.S. military spending on Taiwan to an insurance policy.

“I know the people very well. Respect them greatly. They did take 100% of our chip business. I think Taiwan should pay us for defense,” he said during the interview. 

In addition to asking Taiwan to pay for U.S. protection, Trump also accused Taiwan of stealing semiconductor technologies from the United States and threatened to impose tariffs against Taiwanese semiconductor companies.

“We put up billions of dollars for rich companies to come in and borrow the money and build chip companies here. They’re not going to give us the good companies anyway,” he said during an interview with Joe Rogan on October 25. 

Some Taiwanese people said these comments reflect Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy and underline that he would prioritize American interests once he returns to the White House next January.

“When it comes to things that don’t directly benefit the U.S., I would be worried about his approach,” Lai Ming-Wei, a 44-year-old engineer, told VOA in a recorded interview.

The Trump campaign has not yet responded to a VOA request for comment regarding the president-elect’s policy toward Taiwan.

Despite these concerns, some Taiwanese officials have tried to reassure the public that bilateral relations between Taiwan and the United States won’t significantly change under the second Trump administration.

“On relations across the Taiwan Strait, we believe that the United States will continue its current approach of constraining China and being friendly to Taiwan,” Tsai Ming-yen, Director-General of Taiwan National Security Bureau, told journalists on the sideline of Taiwan’s parliament on Wednesday.

Analysts say while the basic elements of U.S.-Taiwan relations will remain the same, Trump’s campaign comments and more isolationist foreign policy approach could increase uncertainty for bilateral relations between Taipei and Washington.

“We don’t know what version of Donald Trump we are going to see and this kind of uncertainty doesn’t bring stability and predictability to the Taiwan Strait,” Lev Nachman, a political scientist at National Taiwan University, told VOA by phone.

Other experts say Taiwan will have to take concrete actions to convince Trump that the island is serious about boosting its defense capabilities amid rising military pressure from China.

“Taiwan needs to offer something concrete, such as increasing the defense budget, because if Taiwan fails to do so, Trump may think Taiwan isn’t doing anything, so he doesn’t need to be too nice to Taiwan,” said Chen Fang-yu, a political scientist at Soochow University in Taiwan, speaking by phone to VOA.

Taiwan’s defense minister Wellington Koo said on Tuesday that Taipei must show its determination to defend itself regardless of who won the U.S. presidential election.

“We have to let them understand that Taiwan has the determination to defend itself, and the importance of Taiwan’s economic security and strategic geopolitical position,” he told journalists on the sidelines of the parliament. 

However, some Chinese analysts say Taiwan’s attempt to deepen military cooperation with the United States, including buying more weapons from Washington, would be counterproductive to the stability across the Taiwan Strait.

Trump’s comments about Taiwan paying for U.S. protection mean “he is asking Taiwan to increase their defense spending so they can buy more American weapons, but sending more arms to Taiwan wouldn’t help convince China that peaceful reunification is still possible,” Zhou Bo, a senior fellow at the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University in China, told VOA by phone.

Despite concerns about Trump’s potential policies toward Taiwan, based on his campaign comments, some analysts say it remains to be seen how his administration will formulate Taiwan policies.

“There are different voices in his camp. There are voices focusing on the economic competition side, which is represented by Trump himself, and there are voices talking about pulling away from Europe and focusing more resources in Asia to compete with China, and there are voices looking at drawing together U.S. assets, including allies, to compete hard with China,” Ja Ian Chong, a political scientist at the National University of Singapore, told VOA by phone.

However, he said Taiwan should be prepared for potential inconsistency in Trump’s approach as he tends to “cycle through officials very quickly” during his first term in office. “That inconsistency may create an impression that there’s an opening for Beijing,” Chong said.
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China expects bumpy relations with the US under Trump

Taipei, Taiwan — Following U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s sweeping victory, Chinese netizens said they expect the U.S. to increase trade tensions with China while analysts say Washington’s efforts to counter China’s expansion might weaken under a second Trump administration.

Throughout his presidential campaign, Trump has vowed to impose tariffs, between 60% to 200%, on Chinese products on several occasions. During an interview with Fox News on February 4, Trump said he would impose more than 60% tariffs on Chinese imports but emphasized he wasn’t going to start a trade war with China.

In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Trump said he would tax China at 150% to 200% if Beijing decides to “go into Taiwan.”

Some Chinese internet users expect Trump to follow through on the campaign promise to impose huge tariffs on Chinese products but have mixed views about how the tariffs will affect the Chinese economy and their livelihoods.

Amid China’s ongoing economic downturn, some Chinese social media users worry that Trump’s return to the White House could exacerbate the economic pressure on many Chinese citizens.  

“It’s hard to look at Trump’s victory with pure joy, because he is going to launch a trade war with China when he comes into power, and our economy will suffer further,” a Chinese netizen in the capital, Beijing, wrote on the popular microblogging site Weibo, which is similar to X.

“How will the lives of normal citizens change? I’m feeling a sense of unease about the unpredictability of the future,” the person added.

Others say the 60% tariff on Chinese imports to the United States that Trump proposed during the campaign will push Chinese companies to redirect exports from the U.S. to other markets, including Southeast Asia, South America and Europe.

“Trump’s approach of being [an] enemy with the whole world may make some left-wing regimes in Europe disappointed, and this development may lead to a de-escalation of trade tensions between China and Europe,” Niu Chun-bao, chairman of Shanghai Wanji Asset Management Co., posted on Weibo.

Some Chinese netizens predict the immense pressure that Trump is likely to impose on Beijing will enhance China’s domestic unity, and his transactional approach to resolving tensions may offer more room for negotiation and bargaining.

“As long as there are no major internal problems, no external pressure can overwhelm China. So, I think the overall situation may still be positive,” another netizen in the eastern Chinese province of Shandong wrote on Weibo.

‘Significant hit’

While Chinese netizens hold mixed views about the potential tariffs that Trump has vowed to impose on Chinese imports, analysts say this move would be “a significant hit” to the Chinese economy, which has been troubled by an ongoing property crisis, high youth unemployment and weak domestic demand.

If Trump decides to impose 60% tariffs on all Chinese products imported to the U.S., “This would be a return to a big-picture trade war rather than a narrow tech war. And it would have a much deeper impact on China’s export-driven growth potential because he is hitting the entirety of China’s exports to the U.S.,” Jacob Gunter, an expert on China’s political economy at the Mercator Institute for China Studies, told VOA by phone.

In Gunter’s view, Trump may use the tariffs to force China to make more concessions on trade. After imposing up to 25% tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods imported to the U.S. in 2019, the Trump administration and China reached a trade deal that saw Beijing promise to increase purchases of American goods to at least $200 billion.

“We could see a return to the deal-making Donald Trump, where he wants to strike a deal and be viewed as this great negotiator, because that’s who he imagines himself to be,” Gunter said, adding that it remains to be seen how Trump might position the tariffs during his second term.

Other experts say one thing to look out for is what concessions Trump might make during a potential negotiation with China.

“One big question is whether Trump will soften the position the Biden administration has maintained on Taiwan in exchange for more exports and more U.S. investment into China,” Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at French investment bank Natixis, told VOA by phone.

The Trump campaign has not yet responded to a VOA request for comment regarding his administration’s trade plans with China once he takes office in January.

In response to potential tariffs that the incoming Trump administration could impose, analysts say China could impose counter-tariffs on U.S. agricultural products from states controlled by the Republican Party.

“Economic and political tensions between the two countries will inevitably rise, while the global economy and global supply chains will be thrown into chaos,” Zhiqun Zhu, an expert on Chinese foreign policy at Bucknell University, told VOA in a written response.

Weakened coordination with allies

While trade and economic tensions between China and the U.S. are expected to rise during Trump’s second term, Zhu said Trump’s return to power may also be good news for Beijing, as Washington’s efforts to counter China’s expansion of its influence in the Indo-Pacific region may be weakened due to Trump’s isolationist approach in international affairs.

“Trump is more likely to push ahead with his agenda without consulting allies and partners or seeking their support, and this might be good news for China,” Zhu told VOA.

“China can take a ‘divide-and-conquer’ strategy to dilute the effectiveness of Trump’s foreign policy, especially the Indo-Pacific strategy, and we may see improvements in China’s relations with its neighbors, particularly Japan, South Korea and India, as well as U.S. allies in other parts of the world,” Zhu added.

In his view, bilateral relations between China and the U.S. will be dominated by competition under the second Trump administration, but there is also room for diplomacy and cooperation.

“Competition itself is not necessarily harmful, because if the two countries can manage the competition in a healthy way, both sides can benefit,” Zhu said.  
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Harris concedes presidential defeat to Trump

The United States is gearing up for a transfer of power, with President Joe Biden congratulating President-elect Donald Trump on his victory and Vice President Kamala Harris conceding defeat. White House Bureau Chief Patsy Widakuswara reports from Washington. Camera: Adam Greenbaum.
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