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What US election results could mean for Africa

JOHANNESBURG — Whoever U.S. voters choose as their next president — former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris — the election has global implications, with the probability it will affect other economies, foreign conflicts and personal freedoms, analysts told VOA.

South African independent political analyst Asanda Ngoasheng said the winner could usher in policies that affect ordinary people in Africa.

“I hope that as Americans vote, they’re aware that whatever decision they make, it’s going to determine the future of not only America but the rest of the world,” she said.

“How we engage with issues of termination of pregnancy, how we engage with issues of LGBT rights, how we engage with issues of race and racism will be determined by this election, not just for America but for everyone else and everywhere else in the world,” Ngoasheng continued.

The abortion issue is a particularly divisive topic for U.S. Republicans and Democrats.

While the United States is the largest funder of global reproductive health programs, Trump slashed that funding during his presidency by extending a policy that barred U.S. aid from going to any organization that supported abortion.

Experts said they believe that a second Trump presidency would likely do that again and could negatively affect PEPFAR, the U.S.’s key HIV/AIDS program.

Trade is another key area in which analysts think Harris and Trump would differ, given Trump’s “America first” policy.

African governments hope that next year the U.S. will renew the African Growth and Opportunity Act, a Clinton-era policy that gives countries duty-free access to the U.S. market.

Ray Hartley, research director of South African Brenthurst Foundation think tank, does not have high hopes for a second Trump presidency.

“I think that a Trump presidency would reinforce America’s isolationist approach in international affairs, and that might not be good for trade,” he said.

Other analysts said they believe general U.S. policy toward Africa won’t differ radically regardless of who wins.

They said that while Africa was often neglected in terms of U.S. foreign policy, that has shifted in recent years amid renewed competition with Russia and China on the resource-rich continent.

Moscow has strengthened military ties with many African governments, while U.S. troops have been kicked out of Niger and Chad. Beijing, meanwhile, is Africa’s largest trade partner and has been building infrastructure throughout the continent.

Ebenezer Obadare, senior fellow for Africa studies at U.S. research organization  Council on Foreign Relations, said, “Insofar as the United States is intent on competing with those powers in Africa, keeping its old alliances and building new ones, I don’t think one administration is likely to differ much from another, strictly in terms of their Africa policy.”

As vice president, Harris traveled to the continent, where she pushed President Joe Biden’s line that the U.S. was “all in on Africa.” The Biden administration also started holding an annual U.S.-African leaders’ summit.

And, as it increases competition with China, the current administration has also undertaken funding the biggest U.S. infrastructure project in Africa in generations: the Lobito corridor, a railway connecting Angola and the Democratic Republic of Congo that will be used to transport critical minerals.

Biden was forced to reschedule a promised visit to Africa and is now expected in Angola in December. The choice of country has been criticized by some for what they say is Angola’s shoddy human rights record.

Trump’s signature initiative involving the continent was creating Prosper Africa, a U.S. agency designed to assist American companies doing business in Africa.

However, he also offended many Africans during his first term, using a derogatory term to refer to countries on the continent and mispronouncing Namibia’s name. More recently he raised ire by comparing himself to South African icon Nelson Mandela.

Analysts said that while Harris and Trump have generally ignored Africa over the course of their campaigns, whoever becomes America’s next president would do well to keep up engagement with the continent, which boasts the world’s youngest population.
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